SafetyAccountabilityTrustworthinesscs.AI
Review of state-of-the-arts in artificial intelligence with application to AI safety problem
Vladimir Shakirov
May 11, 2016
arXiv.org
10 citations
Key Takeaways
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AI timeline predictions vary dramatically among experts: The paper notes that prominent researchers have vastly different views on when human-level AI might be achieved, ranging from Andrew Ng's pessimistic timeline to Shane Legg's more optimistic predictions, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the field about development speed.
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Recent progress in AI has been exceptionally rapid: The paper emphasizes that the "huge rate of progress in recent years" makes it difficult to predict when human-level capabilities might emerge, suggesting that past timelines may not be reliable guides for future development.
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AI safety concerns are increasingly urgent: Because expert predictions on AI development timelines are so uncertain and progress has been so fast, the paper identifies AI safety as a critical area requiring attention—the faster AI advances, the more pressing these safety questions become.
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Expert disagreement reflects real technical uncertainty: The broad range of predictions from respected AI researchers indicates that even specialists cannot confidently estimate development timelines, which has important implications for how seriously we should take long-term AI safety planning.
Abstract
Here, I review current state-of-the-arts in many areas of AI to estimate when it's reasonable to expect human level AI development. Predictions of prominent AI researchers vary broadly from very pessimistic predictions of Andrew Ng to much more moderate predictions of Geoffrey Hinton and optimistic predictions of Shane Legg, DeepMind cofounder. Given huge rate of progress in recent years and this broad range of predictions of AI experts, AI safety questions are also discussed.