Research Papers

Machine learning and deep learning have become increasingly prevalent in financial prediction and forecasting tasks, offering advantages such as enhanced customer experience, democratising financial services, improving consumer protection, and enhancing risk management. However, these complex models often lack transparency and interpretability, making them challenging to use in sensitive domains like finance. This has led to the rise of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods aimed at creating models that are easily understood by humans. Classical XAI methods, such as LIME and SHAP, have been developed to provide explanations for complex models. While these methods have made significant contributions, they also have limitations, including computational complexity, inherent model bias, sensitivity to data sampling, and challenges in dealing with feature dependence. In this context, this paper explores good practices for deploying explainability in AI-based systems for finance, emphasising the importance of data quality, audience-specific methods, consideration of data properties, and the stability of explanations. These practices aim to address the unique challenges and requirements of the financial industry and guide the development of effective XAI tools.

Within the domain of e-commerce retail, an important objective is the reduction of parcel loss during the last-mile delivery phase. The ever-increasing availability of data, including product, customer, and order information, has made it possible for the application of machine learning in parcel loss prediction. However, a significant challenge arises from the inherent imbalance in the data, i.e., only a very low percentage of parcels are lost. In this paper, we propose two machine learning approaches, namely, Data Balance with Supervised Learning (DBSL) and Deep Hybrid Ensemble Learning (DHEL), to accurately predict parcel loss. The practical implication of such predictions is their value in aiding e-commerce retailers in optimizing insurance-related decision-making policies. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the proposed machine learning models using one year data from Belgian shipments. The findings show that the DHEL model, which combines a feed-forward autoencoder with a random forest, achieves the highest classification performance. Furthermore, we use the techniques from Explainable AI (XAI) to illustrate how prediction models can be used in enhancing business processes and augmenting the overall value proposition for e-commerce retailers in the last mile delivery.

This paper proposes the use of causal modeling to detect and mitigate algorithmic bias. We provide a brief description of causal modeling and a general overview of our approach. We then use the Adult dataset, which is available for download from the UC Irvine Machine Learning Repository, to develop (1) a prediction model, which is treated as a black box, and (2) a causal model for bias mitigation. In this paper, we focus on gender bias and the problem of binary classification. We show that gender bias in the prediction model is statistically significant at the 0.05 level. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the causal model in mitigating gender bias by cross-validation. Furthermore, we show that the overall classification accuracy is improved slightly. Our novel approach is intuitive, easy-to-use, and can be implemented using existing statistical software tools such as "lavaan" in R. Hence, it enhances explainability and promotes trust.

In this paper, we investigate the practical relevance of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) with a special focus on the producing industries and relate them to the current state of academic XAI research. Our findings are based on an extensive series of interviews regarding the role and applicability of XAI along the Machine Learning (ML) lifecycle in current industrial practice and its expected relevance in the future. The interviews were conducted among a great variety of roles and key stakeholders from different industry sectors. On top of that, we outline the state of XAI research by providing a concise review of the relevant literature. This enables us to provide an encompassing overview covering the opinions of the surveyed persons as well as the current state of academic research. By comparing our interview results with the current research approaches we reveal several discrepancies. While a multitude of different XAI approaches exists, most of them are centered around the model evaluation phase and data scientists. Their versatile capabilities for other stages are currently either not sufficiently explored or not popular among practitioners. In line with existing work, our findings also confirm that more efforts are needed to enable also non-expert users' interpretation and understanding of opaque AI models with existing methods and frameworks.

Scientific and technological advances in numerical modelling have improved the quality of climate predictions over recent decades, but predictive skill remains limited in many aspects. Extreme events such as heat and cold waves, droughts, heavy rain and storms are particularly challenging to predict accurately due to their rarity and non-linear chaotic nature, and because of model limitations. However, recent studies have shown that predictive skill of extremes can be increased when using more sophisticated approaches, indicating that there might be systemic predictability that is not being leveraged. Recently, numerous studies have been devoted to the exploitation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to study the predictability and make predictions of weather and climate. AI techniques have shown great potential to improve the prediction of extreme events and uncover their links to large-scale and local drivers. Machine and deep learning, causal discovery, explainable AI, are only some of the approaches that have been tested to both improve our understanding of the processes underlying predictability and enhance prediction skill of extreme events. Results are promising, especially for hybrid predictions that combine the AI, which can reveal and exploit unknown spatio-temporal connections from data, and climate models, that provide the theoretical foundation and interpretability of the physical world. On the other hand, challenges are multiple in many aspects, from data curation to model uncertainty and generalizability, to the reproducibility of methods and workflows. A few best practices are identified to increase trust in these novel techniques, and future perspectives are envisaged for further scientific development.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) are gaining prominence in Healthcare AI, especially in drug discovery and pharmaceutical research as they provide a structured way to integrate diverse information sources, enhancing AI system interpretability. This interpretability is crucial in healthcare, where trust and transparency matter, and eXplainable AI (XAI) supports decision making for healthcare professionals. This overview summarizes recent literature on the impact of KGs in healthcare and their role in developing explainable AI models. We cover KG workflow, including construction, relationship extraction, reasoning, and their applications in areas like Drug-Drug Interactions (DDI), Drug Target Interactions (DTI), Drug Development (DD), Adverse Drug Reactions (ADR), and bioinformatics. We emphasize the importance of making KGs more interpretable through knowledge-infused learning in healthcare. Finally, we highlight research challenges and provide insights for future directions.

Machine Learning's proliferation in critical fields such as healthcare, banking, and criminal justice has motivated the creation of tools which ensure trust and transparency in ML models. One such tool is Actionable Recourse (AR) for negatively impacted users. AR describes recommendations of cost-efficient changes to a user's actionable features to help them obtain favorable outcomes. Existing approaches for providing recourse optimize for properties such as proximity, sparsity, validity, and distance-based costs. However, an often-overlooked but crucial requirement for actionability is a consideration of User Preference to guide the recourse generation process. In this work, we attempt to capture user preferences via soft constraints in three simple forms: i) scoring continuous features, ii) bounding feature values and iii) ranking categorical features. Finally, we propose a gradient-based approach to identify User Preferred Actionable Recourse (UP-AR). We carried out extensive experiments to verify the effectiveness of our approach.

The rapidly evolving field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has generated significant interest in developing methods to make AI systems more transparent and understandable. However, the problem of explainability cannot be exhaustively solved in the abstract, as there is no single approach that can be universally applied to generate adequate explanations for any given AI system, and this is especially true in the arts. In this position paper, we propose an Explanatory Pragmatism (EP) framework for XAI in music performance, emphasising the importance of context and audience in the development of explainability requirements. By tailoring explanations to specific audiences and continuously refining them based on feedback, EP offers a promising direction for enhancing the transparency and interpretability of AI systems in broad artistic applications and more specifically to music performance.

Recently, uncertainty-aware deep learning methods for multiclass labeling problems have been developed that provide calibrated class prediction probabilities and out-of-distribution (OOD) indicators, letting machine learning (ML) consumers and engineers gauge a model's confidence in its predictions. However, this extra neural network prediction information is challenging to scalably convey visually for arbitrary data sources under multiple uncertainty contexts. To address these challenges, we present ScatterUQ, an interactive system that provides targeted visualizations to allow users to better understand model performance in context-driven uncertainty settings. ScatterUQ leverages recent advances in distance-aware neural networks, together with dimensionality reduction techniques, to construct robust, 2-D scatter plots explaining why a model predicts a test example to be (1) in-distribution and of a particular class, (2) in-distribution but unsure of the class, and (3) out-of-distribution. ML consumers and engineers can visually compare the salient features of test samples with training examples through the use of a ``hover callback'' to understand model uncertainty performance and decide follow up courses of action. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ScatterUQ to explain model uncertainty for a multiclass image classification on a distance-aware neural network trained on Fashion-MNIST and tested on Fashion-MNIST (in distribution) and MNIST digits (out of distribution), as well as a deep learning model for a cyber dataset. We quantitatively evaluate dimensionality reduction techniques to optimize our contextually driven UQ visualizations. Our results indicate that the ScatterUQ system should scale to arbitrary, multiclass datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/mit-ll-responsible-ai/equine-webapp

The massive volume of online information along with the issue of misinformation has spurred active research in the automation of fact-checking. Like fact-checking by human experts, it is not enough for an automated fact-checker to just be accurate, but also be able to inform and convince the user of the validity of its predictions. This becomes viable with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). In this work, we conduct a study of XAI fact-checkers involving 180 participants to determine how users' actions towards news and their attitudes towards explanations are affected by the XAI. Our results suggest that XAI has limited effects on users' agreement with the veracity prediction of the automated fact-checker and on their intent to share news. However, XAI nudges users towards forming uniform judgments of news veracity, thereby signaling their reliance on the explanations. We also found polarizing preferences towards XAI and raise several design considerations on them.

The field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to improve the interpretability of black-box machine learning models. Building a heatmap based on the importance value of input features is a popular method for explaining the underlying functions of such models in producing their predictions. Heatmaps are almost understandable to humans, yet they are not without flaws. Non-expert users, for example, may not fully understand the logic of heatmaps (the logic in which relevant pixels to the model's prediction are highlighted with different intensities or colors). Additionally, objects and regions of the input image that are relevant to the model prediction are frequently not entirely differentiated by heatmaps. In this paper, we propose a framework called TbExplain that employs XAI techniques and a pre-trained object detector to present text-based explanations of scene classification models. Moreover, TbExplain incorporates a novel method to correct predictions and textually explain them based on the statistics of objects in the input image when the initial prediction is unreliable. To assess the trustworthiness and validity of the text-based explanations, we conducted a qualitative experiment, and the findings indicated that these explanations are sufficiently reliable. Furthermore, our quantitative and qualitative experiments on TbExplain with scene classification datasets reveal an improvement in classification accuracy over ResNet variants.

This paper investigates the impact of feature encoding techniques on the explainability of XAI (Explainable Artificial Intelligence) algorithms. Using a malware classification dataset, we trained an XGBoost model and compared the performance of two feature encoding methods: Label Encoding (LE) and One Hot Encoding (OHE). Our findings reveal a marginal performance loss when using OHE instead of LE. However, the more detailed explanations provided by OHE compensated for this loss. We observed that OHE enables deeper exploration of details in both global and local contexts, facilitating more comprehensive answers. Additionally, we observed that using OHE resulted in smaller explanation files and reduced analysis time for human analysts. These findings emphasize the significance of considering feature encoding techniques in XAI research and suggest potential for further exploration by incorporating additional encoding methods and innovative visualization approaches.