Research Papers

Explainable Time Series Prediction of Tyre Energy in Formula One Race Strategy

Jamie Todd, Junqi Jiang, Aaron Russo +4

Formula One (F1) race strategy takes place in a high-pressure and fast-paced environment where split-second decisions can drastically affect race results. Two of the core decisions of race strategy are when to make pit stops (i.e. replace the cars' tyres) and which tyre compounds (hard, medium or soft, in normal conditions) to select. The optimal pit stop decisions can be determined by estimating the tyre degradation of these compounds, which in turn can be computed from the energy applied to each tyre, i.e. the tyre energy. In this work, we trained deep learning models, using the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 team's historic race data consisting of telemetry, to forecast tyre energies during races. Additionally, we fitted XGBoost, a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm, to the same dataset and compared the results, with both giving impressive performance. Furthermore, we incorporated two different explainable AI methods, namely feature importance and counterfactual explanations, to gain insights into the reasoning behind the forecasts. Our contributions thus result in an explainable, automated method which could assist F1 teams in optimising their race strategy.

Prostate cancer, a growing global health concern, necessitates precise diagnostic tools, with Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) offering high-resolution soft tissue imaging that significantly enhances diagnostic accuracy. Recent advancements in explainable AI and representation learning have significantly improved prostate cancer diagnosis by enabling automated and precise lesion classification. However, existing explainable AI methods, particularly those based on frameworks like generative adversarial networks (GANs), are predominantly developed for natural image generation, and their application to medical imaging often leads to suboptimal performance due to the unique characteristics and complexity of medical image. To address these challenges, our paper introduces three key contributions. First, we propose ProjectedEx, a generative framework that provides interpretable, multi-attribute explanations, effectively linking medical image features to classifier decisions. Second, we enhance the encoder module by incorporating feature pyramids, which enables multiscale feedback to refine the latent space and improves the quality of generated explanations. Additionally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on both the generator and classifier, demonstrating the clinical relevance and effectiveness of ProjectedEx in enhancing interpretability and supporting the adoption of AI in medical settings. Code will be released at https://github.com/Richardqiyi/ProjectedEx

FitCF: A Framework for Automatic Feature Importance-guided Counterfactual Example Generation

Qianli Wang, Nils Feldhus, Simon Ostermann +3

Counterfactual examples are widely used in natural language processing (NLP) as valuable data to improve models, and in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to understand model behavior. The automated generation of counterfactual examples remains a challenging task even for large language models (LLMs), despite their impressive performance on many tasks. In this paper, we first introduce ZeroCF, a faithful approach for leveraging important words derived from feature attribution methods to generate counterfactual examples in a zero-shot setting. Second, we present a new framework, FitCF, which further verifies aforementioned counterfactuals by label flip verification and then inserts them as demonstrations for few-shot prompting, outperforming two state-of-the-art baselines. Through ablation studies, we identify the importance of each of FitCF's core components in improving the quality of counterfactuals, as assessed through flip rate, perplexity, and similarity measures. Furthermore, we show the effectiveness of LIME and Integrated Gradients as backbone attribution methods for FitCF and find that the number of demonstrations has the largest effect on performance. Finally, we reveal a strong correlation between the faithfulness of feature attribution scores and the quality of generated counterfactuals, which we hope will serve as an important finding for future research in this direction.

Responsible AI principles provide ethical guidelines for developing AI systems, yet their practical implementation in software engineering lacks thorough investigation. Therefore, this study explores the practices and challenges faced by software practitioners in aligning with these principles. Through semi-structured interviews with 25 practitioners, we investigated their methods, concerns, and strategies for addressing Responsible AI in software development. Our findings reveal that while practitioners frequently address fairness, inclusiveness, and reliability, principles such as transparency and accountability receive comparatively less attention in their practices. This scenario highlights gaps in current strategies and the need for more comprehensive frameworks to fully operationalize Responsible AI principles in software engineering.

The lack of ground truth explanation labels is a fundamental challenge for quantitative evaluation in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). This challenge becomes especially problematic when evaluation methods have numerous hyperparameters that must be specified by the user, as there is no ground truth to determine an optimal hyperparameter selection. It is typically not feasible to do an exhaustive search of hyperparameters so researchers typically make a normative choice based on similar studies in the literature, which provides great flexibility for the user. In this work, we illustrate how this flexibility can be exploited to manipulate the evaluation outcome. We frame this manipulation as an adversarial attack on the evaluation where seemingly innocent changes in hyperparameter setting significantly influence the evaluation outcome. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our manipulation across several datasets with large changes in evaluation outcomes across several explanation methods and models. Lastly, we propose a mitigation strategy based on ranking across hyperparameters that aims to provide robustness towards such manipulation. This work highlights the difficulty of conducting reliable XAI evaluation and emphasizes the importance of a holistic and transparent approach to evaluation in XAI.

Algorithmic bias continues to be a key concern of learning analytics. We study the statistical properties of the Absolute Between-ROC Area (ABROCA) metric. This fairness measure quantifies group-level differences in classifier performance through the absolute difference in ROC curves. ABROCA is particularly useful for detecting nuanced performance differences even when overall Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) values are similar. We sample ABROCA under various conditions, including varying AUC differences and class distributions. We find that ABROCA distributions exhibit high skewness dependent on sample sizes, AUC differences, and class imbalance. When assessing whether a classifier is biased, this skewness inflates ABROCA values by chance, even when data is drawn (by simulation) from populations with equivalent ROC curves. These findings suggest that ABROCA requires careful interpretation given its distributional properties, especially when used to assess the degree of bias and when classes are imbalanced.

Growing concerns over the lack of transparency in AI, particularly in high-stakes fields like healthcare and finance, drive the need for explainable and trustworthy systems. While Large Language Models (LLMs) perform exceptionally well in generating accurate outputs, their "black box" nature poses significant challenges to transparency and trust. To address this, the paper proposes the TranspNet pipeline, which integrates symbolic AI with LLMs. By leveraging domain expert knowledge, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and formal reasoning frameworks like Answer Set Programming (ASP), TranspNet enhances LLM outputs with structured reasoning and verification.This approach strives to help AI systems deliver results that are as accurate, explainable, and trustworthy as possible, aligning with regulatory expectations for transparency and accountability. TranspNet provides a solution for developing AI systems that are reliable and interpretable, making it suitable for real-world applications where trust is critical.

As AI systems become integral to critical operations across industries and services, ensuring their reliability and safety is essential. We offer a framework that integrates established reliability and resilience engineering principles into AI systems. By applying traditional metrics such as failure rate and Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) along with resilience engineering and human reliability analysis, we propose an integrate framework to manage AI system performance, and prevent or efficiently recover from failures. Our work adapts classical engineering methods to AI systems and outlines a research agenda for future technical studies. We apply our framework to a real-world AI system, using system status data from platforms such as openAI, to demonstrate its practical applicability. This framework aligns with emerging global standards and regulatory frameworks, providing a methodology to enhance the trustworthiness of AI systems. Our aim is to guide policy, regulation, and the development of reliable, safe, and adaptable AI technologies capable of consistent performance in real-world environments.

Transformer-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various computer vision tasks, including image and video analysis. However, Transformer's complex architecture and black-box nature pose challenges for explainability, a crucial aspect for real-world applications and scientific inquiry. Current Explainable AI (XAI) methods can only provide one-dimensional feature importance, either spatial or temporal explanation, with significant computational complexity. This paper introduces STAA (Spatio-Temporal Attention Attribution), an XAI method for interpreting video Transformer models. Differ from traditional methods that separately apply image XAI techniques for spatial features or segment contribution analysis for temporal aspects, STAA offers both spatial and temporal information simultaneously from attention values in Transformers. The study utilizes the Kinetics-400 dataset, a benchmark collection of 400 human action classes used for action recognition research. We introduce metrics to quantify explanations. We also apply optimization to enhance STAA's raw output. By implementing dynamic thresholding and attention focusing mechanisms, we improve the signal-to-noise ratio in our explanations, resulting in more precise visualizations and better evaluation results. In terms of computational overhead, our method requires less than 3\% of the computational resources of traditional XAI methods, making it suitable for real-time video XAI analysis applications. STAA contributes to the growing field of XAI by offering a method for researchers and practitioners to analyze Transformer models.

Deep Learning methods are notorious for relying on extensive labeled datasets to train and assess their performance. This can cause difficulties in practical situations where models should be trained for new applications for which very little data is available. While few-shot learning algorithms can address the first problem, they still lack sufficient explanations for the results. This research presents a workflow that tackles both challenges by proposing an explainable few-shot learning workflow for detecting invasive and exotic tree species in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) images. By integrating a Siamese network with explainable AI (XAI), the workflow enables the classification of tree species with minimal labeled data while providing visual, case-based explanations for the predictions. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed workflow in identifying new tree species, even in data-scarce conditions. With a lightweight backbone, e.g., MobileNet, it achieves a F1-score of 0.86 in 3-shot learning, outperforming a shallow CNN. A set of explanation metrics, i.e., correctness, continuity, and contrastivity, accompanied by visual cases, provide further insights about the prediction results. This approach opens new avenues for using AI and UAVs in forest management and biodiversity conservation, particularly concerning rare or under-studied species.

Audits contribute to the trustworthiness of Learning Analytics (LA) systems that integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI) and may be legally required in the future. We argue that the efficacy of an audit depends on the auditability of the audited system. Therefore, systems need to be designed with auditability in mind. We present a framework for assessing the auditability of AI-integrating systems that consists of three parts: (1) Verifiable claims about the validity, utility and ethics of the system, (2) Evidence on subjects (data, models or the system) in different types (documentation, raw sources and logs) to back or refute claims, (3) Evidence must be accessible to auditors via technical means (APIs, monitoring tools, explainable AI, etc.). We apply the framework to assess the auditability of Moodle's dropout prediction system and a prototype AI-based LA. We find that Moodle's auditability is limited by incomplete documentation, insufficient monitoring capabilities and a lack of available test data. The framework supports assessing the auditability of AI-based LA systems in use and improves the design of auditable systems and thus of audits.

This study introduces an explainable AI (XAI) framework for the detection of dyslexia through handwriting analysis, achieving an impressive test precision of 99.65%. The framework integrates transfer learning and transformer-based models, identifying handwriting features associated with dyslexia while ensuring transparency in decision-making via Grad-CAM visualizations. Its adaptability to different languages and writing systems underscores its potential for global applicability. By surpassing the classification accuracy of state-of-the-art methods, this approach demonstrates the reliability of handwriting analysis as a diagnostic tool. The findings emphasize the framework's ability to support early detection, build stakeholder trust, and enable personalized educational strategies.