Research Papers

Breaking Down Financial News Impact: A Novel AI Approach with Geometric Hypergraphs

Anoushka Harit, Zhongtian Sun, Jongmin Yu +1

In the fast-paced and volatile financial markets, accurately predicting stock movements based on financial news is critical for investors and analysts. Traditional models often struggle to capture the intricate and dynamic relationships between news events and market reactions, limiting their ability to provide actionable insights. This paper introduces a novel approach leveraging Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through the development of a Geometric Hypergraph Attention Network (GHAN) to analyze the impact of financial news on market behaviours. Geometric hypergraphs extend traditional graph structures by allowing edges to connect multiple nodes, effectively modelling high-order relationships and interactions among financial entities and news events. This unique capability enables the capture of complex dependencies, such as the simultaneous impact of a single news event on multiple stocks or sectors, which traditional models frequently overlook. By incorporating attention mechanisms within hypergraphs, GHAN enhances the model's ability to focus on the most relevant information, ensuring more accurate predictions and better interpretability. Additionally, we employ BERT-based embeddings to capture the semantic richness of financial news texts, providing a nuanced understanding of the content. Using a comprehensive financial news dataset, our GHAN model addresses key challenges in financial news impact analysis, including the complexity of high-order interactions, the necessity for model interpretability, and the dynamic nature of financial markets. Integrating attention mechanisms and SHAP values within GHAN ensures transparency, highlighting the most influential factors driving market predictions. Empirical validation demonstrates the superior effectiveness of our approach over traditional sentiment analysis and time-series models.

The Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (ENEM) is a pivotal test for Brazilian students, required for admission to a significant number of universities in Brazil. The test consists of four objective high-school level tests on Math, Humanities, Natural Sciences and Languages, and one writing essay. Students' answers to the test and to the accompanying socioeconomic status questionnaire are made public every year (albeit anonymized) due to transparency policies from the Brazilian Government. In the context of large language models (LLMs), these data lend themselves nicely to comparing different groups of humans with AI, as we can have access to human and machine answer distributions. We leverage these characteristics of the ENEM dataset and compare GPT-3.5 and 4, and MariTalk, a model trained using Portuguese data, to humans, aiming to ascertain how their answers relate to real societal groups and what that may reveal about the model biases. We divide the human groups by using socioeconomic status (SES), and compare their answer distribution with LLMs for each question and for the essay. We find no significant biases when comparing LLM performance to humans on the multiple-choice Brazilian Portuguese tests, as the distance between model and human answers is mostly determined by the human accuracy. A similar conclusion is found by looking at the generated text as, when analyzing the essays, we observe that human and LLM essays differ in a few key factors, one being the choice of words where model essays were easily separable from human ones. The texts also differ syntactically, with LLM generated essays exhibiting, on average, smaller sentences and less thought units, among other differences. These results suggest that, for Brazilian Portuguese in the ENEM context, LLM outputs represent no group of humans, being significantly different from the answers from Brazilian students across all tests.

Algorithmic bias in healthcare mirrors existing data biases. However, the factors driving unfairness are not always known. Medical devices capture significant amounts of data but are prone to errors; for instance, pulse oximeters overestimate the arterial oxygen saturation of darker-skinned individuals, leading to worse outcomes. The impact of this bias in machine learning (ML) models remains unclear. This study addresses the technical challenges of quantifying the impact of medical device bias in downstream ML. Our experiments compare a "perfect world", without pulse oximetry bias, using SaO2 (blood-gas), to the "actual world", with biased measurements, using SpO2 (pulse oximetry). Under this counterfactual design, two models are trained with identical data, features, and settings, except for the method of measuring oxygen saturation: models using SaO2 are a "control" and models using SpO2 a "treatment". The blood-gas oximetry linked dataset was a suitable test-bed, containing 163,396 nearly-simultaneous SpO2 - SaO2 paired measurements, aligned with a wide array of clinical features and outcomes. We studied three classification tasks: in-hospital mortality, respiratory SOFA score in the next 24 hours, and SOFA score increase by two points. Models using SaO2 instead of SpO2 generally showed better performance. Patients with overestimation of O2 by pulse oximetry of > 3% had significant decreases in mortality prediction recall, from 0.63 to 0.59, P < 0.001. This mirrors clinical processes where biased pulse oximetry readings provide clinicians with false reassurance of patients' oxygen levels. A similar degradation happened in ML models, with pulse oximetry biases leading to more false negatives in predicting adverse outcomes.

SegXAL: Explainable Active Learning for Semantic Segmentation in Driving Scene Scenarios

Sriram Mandalika, Athira Nambiar

Most of the sophisticated AI models utilize huge amounts of annotated data and heavy training to achieve high-end performance. However, there are certain challenges that hinder the deployment of AI models "in-the-wild" scenarios, i.e., inefficient use of unlabeled data, lack of incorporation of human expertise, and lack of interpretation of the results. To mitigate these challenges, we propose a novel Explainable Active Learning (XAL) model, XAL-based semantic segmentation model "SegXAL", that can (i) effectively utilize the unlabeled data, (ii) facilitate the "Human-in-the-loop" paradigm, and (iii) augment the model decisions in an interpretable way. In particular, we investigate the application of the SegXAL model for semantic segmentation in driving scene scenarios. The SegXAL model proposes the image regions that require labeling assistance from Oracle by dint of explainable AI (XAI) and uncertainty measures in a weakly-supervised manner. Specifically, we propose a novel Proximity-aware Explainable-AI (PAE) module and Entropy-based Uncertainty (EBU) module to get an Explainable Error Mask, which enables the machine teachers/human experts to provide intuitive reasoning behind the results and to solicit feedback to the AI system via an active learning strategy. Such a mechanism bridges the semantic gap between man and machine through collaborative intelligence, where humans and AI actively enhance each other's complementary strengths. A novel high-confidence sample selection technique based on the DICE similarity coefficient is also presented within the SegXAL framework. Extensive quantitative and qualitative analyses are carried out in the benchmarking Cityscape dataset. Results show the outperformance of our proposed SegXAL against other state-of-the-art models.

On the Evaluation Consistency of Attribution-based Explanations

Jiarui Duan, Haoling Li, Haofei Zhang +5

Attribution-based explanations are garnering increasing attention recently and have emerged as the predominant approach towards \textit{eXplanable Artificial Intelligence}~(XAI). However, the absence of consistent configurations and systematic investigations in prior literature impedes comprehensive evaluations of existing methodologies. In this work, we introduce {Meta-Rank}, an open platform for benchmarking attribution methods in the image domain. Presently, Meta-Rank assesses eight exemplary attribution methods using six renowned model architectures on four diverse datasets, employing both the \textit{Most Relevant First} (MoRF) and \textit{Least Relevant First} (LeRF) evaluation protocols. Through extensive experimentation, our benchmark reveals three insights in attribution evaluation endeavors: 1) evaluating attribution methods under disparate settings can yield divergent performance rankings; 2) although inconsistent across numerous cases, the performance rankings exhibit remarkable consistency across distinct checkpoints along the same training trajectory; 3) prior attempts at consistent evaluation fare no better than baselines when extended to more heterogeneous models and datasets. Our findings underscore the necessity for future research in this domain to conduct rigorous evaluations encompassing a broader range of models and datasets, and to reassess the assumptions underlying the empirical success of different attribution methods. Our code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/TreeThree-R/Meta-Rank}.

The development of AI-driven generative audio mirrors broader AI trends, often prioritizing immediate accessibility at the expense of explainability. Consequently, integrating such tools into sustained artistic practice remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we explore several paths to improve explainability, drawing primarily from our research-creation practice in training and implementing generative audio models. As practical provisions for improved explainability, we highlight human agency over training materials, the viability of small-scale datasets, the facilitation of the iterative creative process, and the integration of interactive machine learning as a mapping tool. Importantly, these steps aim to enhance human agency over generative AI systems not only during model inference, but also when curating and preprocessing training data as well as during the training phase of models.

Identifying the relevant input features that have a critical influence on the output results is indispensable for the development of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Remove-and-Retrain (ROAR) is a widely accepted approach for assessing the importance of individual pixels by measuring changes in accuracy following their removal and subsequent retraining of the modified dataset. However, we uncover notable limitations in pixel-perturbation strategies. When viewed from a geometric perspective, we discover that these metrics fail to discriminate between differences among feature attribution methods, thereby compromising the reliability of the evaluation. To address this challenge, we introduce an alternative feature-perturbation approach named Geometric Remove-and-Retrain (GOAR). Through a series of experiments with both synthetic and real datasets, we substantiate that GOAR transcends the limitations of pixel-centric metrics.

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is a set of tools and algorithms that applied or embedded to machine learning models to understand and interpret the models. They are recommended especially for complex or advanced models including deep neural network because they are not interpretable from human point of view. On the other hand, simple models including linear regression are easy to implement, has less computational complexity and easy to visualize the output. The common notion in the literature that simple models including linear regression are considered as "white box" because they are more interpretable and easier to understand. This is based on the idea that linear regression models have several favorable outcomes including the effect of the features in the model and whether they affect positively or negatively toward model output. Moreover, uncertainty of the model can be measured or estimated using the confidence interval. However, we argue that this perception is not accurate and linear regression models are not easy to interpret neither easy to understand considering common XAI metrics and possible challenges might face. This includes linearity, local explanation, multicollinearity, covariates, normalization, uncertainty, features contribution and fairness. Consequently, we recommend the so-called simple models should be treated equally to complex models when it comes to explainability and interpretability.

eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims at providing understandable explanations of black box models. In this paper, we evaluate current XAI methods by scoring them based on ground truth simulations and sensitivity analysis. To this end, we used an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) model to better understand the limits and robustness characteristics of XAI methods such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), as well as Averaged Local Effects (ALE) or Smooth Gradients (SG) in a highly topical setting. These XAI methods were applied to various types of black-box models and then scored based on their correctness compared to the ground-truth sensitivity of the data-generating processes using a novel scoring evaluation methodology over a range of simulated additive noise. The resulting evaluation shows that the capability of the Machine Learning (ML) models to capture the process accurately is, indeed, coupled with the correctness of the explainability of the underlying data-generating process. We furthermore show the differences between XAI methods in their ability to correctly predict the true sensitivity of the modeled industrial process.

The support of artificial intelligence (AI) based decision-making is a key element in future 6G networks, where the concept of native AI will be introduced. Moreover, AI is widely employed in different critical applications such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis. In such applications, using AI as black-box models is risky and challenging. Hence, it is crucial to understand and trust the decisions taken by these models. Tackling this issue can be achieved by developing explainable AI (XAI) schemes that aim to explain the logic behind the black-box model behavior, and thus, ensure its efficient and safe deployment. Recently, we proposed a novel perturbation-based XAI-CHEST framework that is oriented toward channel estimation in wireless communications. The core idea of the XAI-CHEST framework is to identify the relevant model inputs by inducing high noise on the irrelevant ones. This manuscript provides the detailed theoretical foundations of the XAI-CHEST framework. In particular, we derive the analytical expressions of the XAI-CHEST loss functions and the noise threshold fine-tuning optimization problem. Hence the designed XAI-CHEST delivers a smart input feature selection methodology that can further improve the overall performance while optimizing the architecture of the employed model. Simulation results show that the XAI-CHEST framework provides valid interpretations, where it offers an improved bit error rate performance while reducing the required computational complexity in comparison to the classical DL-based channel estimation.

Self-supervised models have revolutionized speech processing, achieving new levels of performance in a wide variety of tasks with limited resources. However, the inner workings of these models are still opaque. In this paper, we aim to analyze the encoded contextual representation of these foundation models based on their inter- and intra-model similarity, independent of any external annotation and task-specific constraint. We examine different SSL models varying their training paradigm -- Contrastive (Wav2Vec2.0) and Predictive models (HuBERT); and model sizes (base and large). We explore these models on different levels of localization/distributivity of information including (i) individual neurons; (ii) layer representation; (iii) attention weights and (iv) compare the representations with their finetuned counterparts.Our results highlight that these models converge to similar representation subspaces but not to similar neuron-localized concepts\footnote{A concept represents a coherent fragment of knowledge, such as ``a class containing certain objects as elements, where the objects have certain properties. We made the code publicly available for facilitating further research, we publicly released our code.

The neonatal period is the most vulnerable time for the development of seizures. Seizures in the immature brain lead to detrimental consequences, therefore require early diagnosis. The gold-standard for neonatal seizure detection currently relies on continuous video-EEG monitoring; which involves recording multi-channel electroencephalogram (EEG) alongside real-time video monitoring within a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). However, video-EEG monitoring technology requires clinical expertise and is often limited to technologically advanced and resourceful settings. Cost-effective new techniques could help the medical fraternity make an accurate diagnosis and advocate treatment without delay. In this work, a novel explainable deep learning model to automate the neonatal seizure detection process with a reduced EEG montage is proposed, which employs convolutional nets, graph attention layers, and fully connected layers. Beyond its ability to detect seizures in real-time with a reduced montage, this model offers the unique advantage of real-time interpretability. By evaluating the performance on the Zenodo dataset with 10-fold cross-validation, the presented model achieves an absolute improvement of 8.31% and 42.86% in area under curve (AUC) and recall, respectively.