Research Papers

In recent years, humanity has begun to experience the catastrophic effects of climate change as economic sectors (such as agriculture) struggle with unpredictable and extreme weather events. Artificial Intelligence (AI) should help us handle these climate challenges but its most promising solutions are not good at dealing with climate-disrupted data; specifically, machine learning methods that work from historical data-distributions, are not good at handling out-of-distribution, outlier events. In this paper, we propose a novel data augmentation method, that treats the predictive problems around climate change as being, in part, due to class-imbalance issues; that is, prediction from historical datasets is difficult because, by definition, they lack sufficient minority-class instances of "climate outlier events". This novel data augmentation method -- called Counterfactual-Based SMOTE (CFA-SMOTE) -- combines an instance-based counterfactual method from Explainable AI (XAI) with the well-known class-imbalance method, SMOTE. CFA-SMOTE creates synthetic data-points representing outlier, climate-events that augment the dataset to improve predictive performance. We report comparative experiments using this CFA-SMOTE method, comparing it to benchmark counterfactual and class-imbalance methods under different conditions (i.e., class-imbalance ratios). The focal climate-change domain used relies on predicting grass growth on Irish dairy farms, during Europe-wide drought and forage crisis of 2018.

Although neural networks are a powerful tool, their widespread use is hindered by the opacity of their decisions and their black-box nature, which result in a lack of trustworthiness. To alleviate this problem, methods in the field of explainable Artificial Intelligence try to unveil how such automated decisions are made. But explainable AI methods are often plagued by missing faithfulness/correctness, meaning that they sometimes provide explanations that do not align with the neural network's decision and logic. Recently, transformations to decision trees have been proposed to overcome such problems. Unfortunately, they typically lack exactness, scalability, or interpretability as the size of the neural network grows. Thus, we generalize these previous results, especially by considering convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, non-ReLU activation functions, and bias terms. Our findings are accompanied by rigorous proofs and we present a novel algorithm RENTT (Runtime Efficient Network to Tree Transformation) designed to compute an exact equivalent decision tree representation of neural networks in a manner that is both runtime and memory efficient. The resulting decision trees are multivariate and thus, possibly too complex to understand. To alleviate this problem, we also provide a method to calculate the ground truth feature importance for neural networks via the equivalent decision trees - for entire models (global), specific input regions (regional), or single decisions (local). All theoretical results are supported by detailed numerical experiments that emphasize two key aspects: the computational efficiency and scalability of our algorithm, and that only RENTT succeeds in uncovering ground truth explanations compared to conventional approximation methods like LIME and SHAP. All code is available at https://github.com/HelenaM23/RENTT .

The complexity and opacity of neural networks (NNs) pose significant challenges, particularly in high-stakes fields such as healthcare, finance, and law, where understanding decision-making processes is crucial. To address these issues, the field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has developed various methods aimed at clarifying AI decision-making, thereby facilitating appropriate trust and validating the fairness of outcomes. Among these methods, prototype-based explanations offer a promising approach that uses representative examples to elucidate model behavior. However, a critical gap exists regarding standardized benchmarks to objectively compare prototype-based XAI methods, especially in the context of time series data. This lack of reliable benchmarks results in subjective evaluations, hindering progress in the field. We aim to establish a robust framework, ProtoScore, for assessing prototype-based XAI methods across different data types with a focus on time series data, facilitating fair and comprehensive evaluations. By integrating the Co-12 properties of Nauta et al., this framework allows for effectively comparing prototype methods against each other and against other XAI methods, ultimately assisting practitioners in selecting appropriate explanation methods while minimizing the costs associated with user studies. All code is publicly available at https://github.com/HelenaM23/ProtoScore .

Ensuring that Large Language Models (LLMs) align with the diverse and evolving human values across different regions and cultures remains a critical challenge in AI ethics. Current alignment approaches often yield superficial conformity rather than genuine ethical understanding, failing to address the complex, context-dependent nature of human values. In this paper, we propose a novel ethical reasoning paradigm for LLMs inspired by well-established ethical decision-making models, aiming at enhancing diverse human value alignment through deliberative ethical reasoning. Our framework consists of a structured five-step process, including contextual fact gathering, hierarchical social norm identification, option generation, multiple-lens ethical impact analysis, and reflection. This theory-grounded approach guides LLMs through an interpretable reasoning process that enhances their ability to understand regional specificities and perform nuanced ethical analysis, which can be implemented with either prompt engineering or supervised fine-tuning methods. We perform evaluations on the SafeWorld benchmark that specially designed for regional value alignment. Experimental results demonstrate our framework significantly improves LLM alignment with diverse human values compared to baseline methods, enabling more accurate social norm identification and more culturally appropriate reasoning. Our work provides a concrete pathway toward developing LLMs that align more effectively with the multifaceted values of global societies through interdisciplinary research.

Class imbalance poses a fundamental challenge in machine learning, frequently leading to unreliable classification performance. While prior methods focus on data- or loss-reweighting schemes, we view imbalance as a data condition that amplifies Clever Hans (CH) effects by underspecification of minority classes. In a counterfactual explanations-based approach, we propose to leverage Explainable AI to jointly identify and eliminate CH effects emerging under imbalance. Our method achieves competitive classification performance on three datasets and demonstrates how CH effects emerge under imbalance, a perspective largely overlooked by existing approaches.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR), a microvascular complication of diabetes and a leading cause of preventable blindness, is projected to affect more than 130 million individuals worldwide by 2030. Early identification is essential to reduce irreversible vision loss, yet current diagnostic workflows rely on methods such as fundus photography and expert review, which remain costly and resource-intensive. This, combined with DR's asymptomatic nature, results in its underdiagnosis rate of approximately 25 percent. Although convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated strong performance in medical imaging tasks, limited interpretability and the absence of uncertainty quantification restrict clinical reliability. Therefore, in this study, a deep ensemble learning framework integrated with uncertainty estimation is introduced to improve robustness, transparency, and scalability in DR detection. The ensemble incorporates seven CNN architectures-ResNet-50, DenseNet-121, MobileNetV3 (Small and Large), and EfficientNet (B0, B2, B3)- whose outputs are fused through an accuracy-weighted majority voting strategy. A probability-weighted entropy metric quantifies prediction uncertainty, enabling low-confidence samples to be excluded or flagged for additional review. Training and validation on 35,000 EyePACS retinal fundus images produced an unfiltered accuracy of 93.70 percent (F1 = 0.9376). Uncertainty-filtering later was conducted to remove unconfident samples, resulting in maximum-accuracy of 99.44 percent (F1 = 0.9932). The framework shows that uncertainty-aware, accuracy-weighted ensembling improves reliability without hindering performance. With confidence-calibrated outputs and a tunable accuracy-coverage trade-off, it offers a generalizable paradigm for deploying trustworthy AI diagnostics in high-risk care.

The task here is to predict the toxicological activity of chemical compounds based on the Tox21 dataset, a benchmark in computational toxicology. After a domain-specific overview of chemical toxicity, we discuss current computational strategies, focusing on machine learning and deep learning. Several architectures are compared in terms of performance, robustness, and interpretability. This research introduces a novel image-based pipeline based on DenseNet121, which processes 2D graphical representations of chemical structures. Additionally, we employ Grad-CAM visualizations, an explainable AI technique, to interpret the model's predictions and highlight molecular regions contributing to toxicity classification. The proposed architecture achieves competitive results compared to traditional models, demonstrating the potential of deep convolutional networks in cheminformatics. Our findings emphasize the value of combining image-based representations with explainable AI methods to improve both predictive accuracy and model transparency in toxicology.

Contemporary chess engines offer precise yet opaque evaluations, typically expressed as centipawn scores. While effective for decision-making, these outputs obscure the underlying contributions of individual pieces or patterns. In this paper, we explore adapting SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to the domain of chess analysis, aiming to attribute a chess engines evaluation to specific pieces on the board. By treating pieces as features and systematically ablating them, we compute additive, per-piece contributions that explain the engines output in a locally faithful and human-interpretable manner. This method draws inspiration from classical chess pedagogy, where players assess positions by mentally removing pieces, and grounds it in modern explainable AI techniques. Our approach opens new possibilities for visualization, human training, and engine comparison. We release accompanying code and data to foster future research in interpretable chess AI.

A Multi-level Analysis of Factors Associated with Student Performance: A Machine Learning Approach to the SAEB Microdata

Rodrigo Tertulino, Laércio Alencar

Identifying the factors that influence student performance in basic education is a central challenge for formulating effective public policies in Brazil. This study introduces a multi-level machine learning approach to classify the proficiency of 9th-grade and high school students using microdata from the System of Assessment of Basic Education (SAEB). Our model uniquely integrates four data sources: student socioeconomic characteristics, teacher professional profiles, school indicators, and principal management profiles. A comparative analysis of four ensemble algorithms confirmed the superiority of a Random Forest model, which achieved 90.2% accuracy and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 96.7%. To move beyond prediction, we applied Explainable AI (XAI) using SHAP, which revealed that the school's average socioeconomic level is the most dominant predictor, demonstrating that systemic factors have a greater impact than individual characteristics in isolation. The primary conclusion is that academic performance is a systemic phenomenon deeply tied to the school's ecosystem. This study provides a data-driven, interpretable tool to inform policies aimed at promoting educational equity by addressing disparities between schools.

Deep neural networks like PhaseNet show high accuracy in detecting microseismic events, but their black-box nature is a concern in critical applications. We apply Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, such as Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), to interpret the PhaseNet model's decisions and improve its reliability. Grad-CAM highlights that the network's attention aligns with P- and S-wave arrivals. SHAP values quantify feature contributions, confirming that vertical-component amplitudes drive P-phase picks while horizontal components dominate S-phase picks, consistent with geophysical principles. Leveraging these insights, we introduce a SHAP-gated inference scheme that combines the model's output with an explanation-based metric to reduce errors. On a test set of 9,000 waveforms, the SHAP-gated model achieved an F1-score of 0.98 (precision 0.99, recall 0.97), outperforming the baseline PhaseNet (F1-score 0.97) and demonstrating enhanced robustness to noise. These results show that XAI can not only interpret deep learning models but also directly enhance their performance, providing a template for building trust in automated seismic detectors. The implementation and scripts used in this study will be publicly available at https://github.com/ayratabd/xAI_PhaseNet.

In this study, we present an interpretable deep learning framework for the early detection of breast cancer using quantitative features extracted from digitized fine needle aspirate (FNA) images of breast masses. Our deep neural network, using ReLU activations, the Adam optimizer, and a binary cross-entropy loss, delivers state-of-the-art classification performance, achieving an accuracy of 0.992, precision of 1.000, recall of 0.977, and an F1 score of 0.988. These results substantially exceed the benchmarks reported in the literature. We evaluated the model under identical protocols against a suite of well-established algorithms (logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, stochastic gradient descent, K-nearest neighbors, and XGBoost) and found the deep model consistently superior on the same metrics. Recognizing that high predictive accuracy alone is insufficient for clinical adoption due to the black-box nature of deep learning models, we incorporated model-agnostic Explainable AI techniques such as SHAP and LIME to produce feature-level attributions and human-readable visualizations. These explanations quantify the contribution of each feature to individual predictions, support error analysis, and increase clinician trust, thus bridging the gap between performance and interpretability for real-world clinical use. The concave points feature of the cell nuclei is found to be the most influential feature positively impacting the classification task. This insight can be very helpful in improving the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer by highlighting the key characteristics of breast tumor.

Large-scale AI models such as GPT-4 have accelerated the deployment of artificial intelligence across critical domains including law, healthcare, and finance, raising urgent questions about trust and transparency. This study investigates the relationship between explainability and user trust in AI systems through a quantitative experimental design. Using an interactive, web-based loan approval simulation, we compare how different types of explanations, ranging from basic feature importance to interactive counterfactuals influence perceived trust. Results suggest that interactivity enhances both user engagement and confidence, and that the clarity and relevance of explanations are key determinants of trust. These findings contribute empirical evidence to the growing field of human-centered explainable AI, highlighting measurable effects of explainability design on user perception