Research Papers

Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We evaluate neural and hybrid (NN plus Markov) models for short-term earthquake forecasting on a regional catalog using temporally stratified cross-validation. Models are trained on earlier portions of the catalog and evaluated on future unseen events, enabling realistic assessment of temporal generalization. We find that while these models outperform a purely Markovian model on validation data, their test performance degrades substantially in the most recent quintile. A detailed attribution analysis reveals a shift in feature relevance over time, with later data exhibiting simpler, more Markov-consistent behavior. To support interpretability, we apply Integrated Gradients, a type of explainable AI (XAI) to analyze how models rely on different input features. These results highlight the risks of overfitting to early patterns in seismicity and underscore the importance of temporally realistic benchmarks. We conclude that forecasting skill is inherently time-dependent and benefits from combining physical priors with data-driven methods.

Bone health studies are crucial in medical practice for the early detection and treatment of Osteopenia and Osteoporosis. Clinicians usually make a diagnosis based on densitometry (DEXA scans) and patient history. The applications of AI in this field are ongoing research. Most successful methods rely on deep learning models that use vision alone (DEXA/X-ray imagery) and focus on prediction accuracy, while explainability is often disregarded and left to post hoc assessments of input contributions. We propose ProtoMedX, a multi-modal (multimodal) model that uses both DEXA scans of the lumbar spine and patient records. ProtoMedX's prototype-based architecture is explainable by design, which is crucial for medical applications, especially in the context of the upcoming EU AI Act, as it allows explicit analysis of model decisions, including incorrect ones. ProtoMedX demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in bone health classification while also providing explanations that can be visually understood by clinicians. Using a dataset of 4,160 real NHS patients, the proposed ProtoMedX achieves 87.58% accuracy in vision-only tasks and 89.8% in its multi-modal variant, both surpassing existing published methods.

From Sea to System: Exploring User-Centered Explainable AI for Maritime Decision Support

Doreen Jirak, Pieter Maes, Armeen Saroukanoff +1

As autonomous technologies increasingly shape maritime operations, understanding why an AI system makes a decision becomes as crucial as what it decides. In complex and dynamic maritime environments, trust in AI depends not only on performance but also on transparency and interpretability. This paper highlights the importance of Explainable AI (XAI) as a foundation for effective human-machine teaming in the maritime domain, where informed oversight and shared understanding are essential. To support the user-centered integration of XAI, we propose a domain-specific survey designed to capture maritime professionals' perceptions of trust, usability, and explainability. Our aim is to foster awareness and guide the development of user-centric XAI systems tailored to the needs of seafarers and maritime teams.

State-of-the-art (SOTA) Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are criticized for their extensive computational power, long training times, and large datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a reasonable network (R-Net), a lightweight CNN only to detect and classify colorectal cancer (CRC) using the Enteroscope Biopsy Histopathological Hematoxylin and Eosin Image Dataset (EBHI). Furthermore, six SOTA CNNs, including Multipath-based CNNs (DenseNet121, ResNet50), Depth-based CNNs (InceptionV3), width-based multi-connection CNNs (Xception), depth-wise separable convolutions (MobileNetV2), spatial exploitation-based CNNs (VGG16), Transfer learning, and two ensemble models are also tested on the same dataset. The ensemble models are a multipath-depth-width combination (DenseNet121-InceptionV3-Xception) and a multipath-depth-spatial combination (ResNet18-InceptionV3-VGG16). However, the proposed R-Net lightweight achieved 99.37% accuracy, outperforming MobileNet (95.83%) and ResNet50 (96.94%). Most importantly, to understand the decision-making of R-Net, Explainable AI such as SHAP, LIME, and Grad-CAM are integrated to visualize which parts of the EBHI image contribute to the detection and classification process of R-Net. The main novelty of this research lies in building a reliable, lightweight CNN R-Net that requires fewer computing resources yet maintains strong prediction results. SOTA CNNs, transfer learning, and ensemble models also extend our knowledge on CRC classification and detection. XAI functionality and the impact of pixel intensity on correct and incorrect classification images are also some novelties in CRC detection and classification.

Chemists in search of structure-property relationships face great challenges due to limited high quality, concordant datasets. Machine learning (ML) has significantly advanced predictive capabilities in chemical sciences, but these modern data-driven approaches have increased the demand for data. In response to the growing demand for explainable AI (XAI) and to bridge the gap between predictive accuracy and human comprehensibility, we introduce LAMeL - a Linear Algorithm for Meta-Learning that preserves interpretability while improving the prediction accuracy across multiple properties. While most approaches treat each chemical prediction task in isolation, LAMeL leverages a meta-learning framework to identify shared model parameters across related tasks, even if those tasks do not share data, allowing it to learn a common functional manifold that serves as a more informed starting point for new unseen tasks. Our method delivers performance improvements ranging from 1.1- to 25-fold over standard ridge regression, depending on the domain of the dataset. While the degree of performance enhancement varies across tasks, LAMeL consistently outperforms or matches traditional linear methods, making it a reliable tool for chemical property prediction where both accuracy and interpretability are critical.

The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in mental health and other sensitive domains raises urgent questions about ethical reasoning, fairness, and responsible alignment. Yet, existing benchmarks for moral and clinical decision-making do not adequately capture the unique ethical dilemmas encountered in mental health practice, where confidentiality, autonomy, beneficence, and bias frequently intersect. To address this gap, we introduce Ethical Reasoning in Mental Health (EthicsMH), a pilot dataset of 125 scenarios designed to evaluate how AI systems navigate ethically charged situations in therapeutic and psychiatric contexts. Each scenario is enriched with structured fields, including multiple decision options, expert-aligned reasoning, expected model behavior, real-world impact, and multi-stakeholder viewpoints. This structure enables evaluation not only of decision accuracy but also of explanation quality and alignment with professional norms. Although modest in scale and developed with model-assisted generation, EthicsMH establishes a task framework that bridges AI ethics and mental health decision-making. By releasing this dataset, we aim to provide a seed resource that can be expanded through community and expert contributions, fostering the development of AI systems capable of responsibly handling some of society's most delicate decisions.

The Quantum-Inspired Stacked Integrated Concept Graph Model (QISICGM) is an innovative machine learning framework that harnesses quantum-inspired techniques to predict diabetes risk with exceptional accuracy and efficiency. Utilizing the PIMA Indians Diabetes dataset augmented with 2,000 synthetic samples to mitigate class imbalance (total: 2,768 samples, 1,949 positives), QISICGM integrates a self-improving concept graph with a stacked ensemble comprising Random Forests (RF), Extra Trees (ET), transformers, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs). This approach achieves an out-of-fold (OOF) F1 score of 0.8933 and an AUC of 0.8699, outperforming traditional methods. Quantum inspired elements, such as phase feature mapping and neighborhood sequence modeling, enrich feature representations, enabling CPU-efficient inference at 8.5 rows per second. This paper presents a detailed architecture, theoretical foundations, code insights, and performance evaluations, including visualizations from the outputs subfolder. The open-source implementation (v1.0.0) is available at https://github.com/keninayoung/QISICGM, positioning QISICGM as a potential benchmark for AI-assisted clinical triage in diabetes and beyond. Ultimately, this work emphasizes trustworthy AI through calibration, interpretability, and open-source reproducibility.

Anti-Money Laundering Machine Learning Pipelines; A Technical Analysis on Identifying High-risk Bank Clients with Supervised Learning

Khashayar Namdar, Pin-Chien Wang, Tushar Raju +3

Anti-money laundering (AML) actions and measurements are among the priorities of financial institutions, for which machine learning (ML) has shown to have a high potential. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive and systematic approach for developing ML pipelines to identify high-risk bank clients in a dataset curated for Task 1 of the University of Toronto 2023-2024 Institute for Management and Innovation (IMI) Big Data and Artificial Intelligence Competition. The dataset included 195,789 customer IDs, and we employed a 16-step design and statistical analysis to ensure the final pipeline was robust. We also framed the data in a SQLite database, developed SQL-based feature engineering algorithms, connected our pre-trained model to the database, and made it inference-ready, and provided explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) modules to derive feature importance. Our pipeline achieved a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.961 with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.005. The proposed pipeline achieved second place in the competition.

Tournaments are widely used models to represent pairwise dominance between candidates, alternatives, or teams. We study the problem of providing certified explanations for why a candidate appears among the winners under various tournament rules. To this end, we identify minimal supports, minimal sub-tournaments in which the candidate is guaranteed to win regardless of how the rest of the tournament is completed (that is, the candidate is a necessary winner of the sub-tournament). This notion corresponds to an abductive explanation for the question,"Why does the winner win the tournament?", a central concept in formal explainable AI. We focus on common tournament solutions: the top cycle, the uncovered set, the Copeland rule, the Borda rule, the maximin rule, and the weighted uncovered set. For each rule we determine the size of the smallest minimal supports, and we present polynomial-time algorithms to compute them for all solutions except for the weighted uncovered set, for which the problem is NP-complete. Finally, we show how minimal supports can serve to produce compact, certified, and intuitive explanations for tournament solutions.

Deep neural networks excel in radiological image classification but frequently suffer from poor interpretability, limiting clinical acceptance. We present MedicalPatchNet, an inherently self-explainable architecture for chest X-ray classification that transparently attributes decisions to distinct image regions. MedicalPatchNet splits images into non-overlapping patches, independently classifies each patch, and aggregates predictions, enabling intuitive visualization of each patch's diagnostic contribution without post-hoc techniques. Trained on the CheXpert dataset (223,414 images), MedicalPatchNet matches the classification performance (AUROC 0.907 vs. 0.908) of EfficientNetV2-S, while improving interpretability: MedicalPatchNet demonstrates improved interpretability with higher pathology localization accuracy (mean hit-rate 0.485 vs. 0.376 with Grad-CAM) on the CheXlocalize dataset. By providing explicit, reliable explanations accessible even to non-AI experts, MedicalPatchNet mitigates risks associated with shortcut learning, thus improving clinical trust. Our model is publicly available with reproducible training and inference scripts and contributes to safer, explainable AI-assisted diagnostics across medical imaging domains. We make the code publicly available: https://github.com/TruhnLab/MedicalPatchNet

Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is essential for diagnosing conditions such as glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy, and age-related macular degeneration. Accurate retinal layer segmentation enables quantitative biomarkers critical for clinical decision-making, but manual segmentation is time-consuming and variable, while conventional deep learning models often lack interpretability. This work proposes an improved SegNet-based deep learning framework for automated and interpretable retinal layer segmentation. Architectural innovations, including modified pooling strategies, enhance feature extraction from noisy OCT images, while a hybrid loss function combining categorical cross-entropy and Dice loss improves performance for thin and imbalanced retinal layers. Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) is integrated to provide visual explanations, allowing clinical validation of model decisions. Trained and validated on the Duke OCT dataset, the framework achieved 95.77% validation accuracy, a Dice coefficient of 0.9446, and a Jaccard Index (IoU) of 0.8951. Class-wise results confirmed robust performance across most layers, with challenges remaining for thinner boundaries. Grad-CAM visualizations highlighted anatomically relevant regions, aligning segmentation with clinical biomarkers and improving transparency. By combining architectural improvements, a customized hybrid loss, and explainable AI, this study delivers a high-performing SegNet-based framework that bridges the gap between accuracy and interpretability. The approach offers strong potential for standardizing OCT analysis, enhancing diagnostic efficiency, and fostering clinical trust in AI-driven ophthalmic tools.

Explainable AI (XAI) is essential for validating and trusting models in safety-critical applications like autonomous driving. However, the reliability of XAI is challenged by the Rashomon effect, where multiple, equally accurate models can offer divergent explanations for the same prediction. This paper provides the first empirical quantification of this effect for the task of action prediction in real-world driving scenes. Using Qualitative Explainable Graphs (QXGs) as a symbolic scene representation, we train Rashomon sets of two distinct model classes: interpretable, pair-based gradient boosting models and complex, graph-based Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Using feature attribution methods, we measure the agreement of explanations both within and between these classes. Our results reveal significant explanation disagreement. Our findings suggest that explanation ambiguity is an inherent property of the problem, not just a modeling artifact.