Research Papers

A pressing issue in the adoption of AI models is the increasing demand for more human-centric explanations of their predictions. To advance towards more human-centric explanations, understanding how humans produce and select explanations has been beneficial. In this work, inspired by insights of human cognition we propose and test the incorporation of two novel biases to enhance the search for effective counterfactual explanations. Central to our methodology is the application of diffusion distance, which emphasizes data connectivity and actionability in the search for feasible counterfactual explanations. In particular, diffusion distance effectively weights more those points that are more interconnected by numerous short-length paths. This approach brings closely connected points nearer to each other, identifying a feasible path between them. We also introduce a directional coherence term that allows the expression of a preference for the alignment between the joint and marginal directional changes in feature space to reach a counterfactual. This term enables the generation of counterfactual explanations that align with a set of marginal predictions based on expectations of how the outcome of the model varies by changing one feature at a time. We evaluate our method, named Coherent Directional Counterfactual Explainer (CoDiCE), and the impact of the two novel biases against existing methods such as DiCE, FACE, Prototypes, and Growing Spheres. Through a series of ablation experiments on both synthetic and real datasets with continuous and mixed-type features, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

We formulate an XAI-based model improvement approach for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for node classification, called Explanation Enhanced Graph Learning (EEGL). The goal is to improve predictive performance of GNN using explanations. EEGL is an iterative self-improving algorithm, which starts with a learned "vanilla" GNN, and repeatedly uses frequent subgraph mining to find relevant patterns in explanation subgraphs. These patterns are then filtered further to obtain application-dependent features corresponding to the presence of certain subgraphs in the node neighborhoods. Giving an application-dependent algorithm for such a subgraph-based extension of the Weisfeiler-Leman (1-WL) algorithm has previously been posed as an open problem. We present experimental evidence, with synthetic and real-world data, which show that EEGL outperforms related approaches in predictive performance and that it has a node-distinguishing power beyond that of vanilla GNNs. We also analyze EEGL's training dynamics.

People Attribute Purpose to Autonomous Vehicles When Explaining Their Behavior: Insights from Cognitive Science for Explainable AI

Balint Gyevnar, Stephanie Droop, Tadeg Quillien +4

It is often argued that effective human-centered explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) should resemble human reasoning. However, empirical investigations of how concepts from cognitive science can aid the design of XAI are lacking. Based on insights from cognitive science, we propose a framework of explanatory modes to analyze how people frame explanations, whether mechanistic, teleological, or counterfactual. Using the complex safety-critical domain of autonomous driving, we conduct an experiment consisting of two studies on (i) how people explain the behavior of a vehicle in 14 unique scenarios (N1=54) and (ii) how they perceive these explanations (N2=382), curating the novel Human Explanations for Autonomous Driving Decisions (HEADD) dataset. Our main finding is that participants deem teleological explanations significantly better quality than counterfactual ones, with perceived teleology being the best predictor of perceived quality. Based on our results, we argue that explanatory modes are an important axis of analysis when designing and evaluating XAI and highlight the need for a principled and empirically grounded understanding of the cognitive mechanisms of explanation. The HEADD dataset and our code are available at: https://datashare.ed.ac.uk/handle/10283/8930.

The Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is a widely studied combinatorial optimization problem and has been applied to various practical problems. While the explainability for VRP is significant for improving the reliability and interactivity in practical VRP applications, it remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose RouteExplainer, a post-hoc explanation framework that explains the influence of each edge in a generated route. Our framework realizes this by rethinking a route as the sequence of actions and extending counterfactual explanations based on the action influence model to VRP. To enhance the explanation, we additionally propose an edge classifier that infers the intentions of each edge, a loss function to train the edge classifier, and explanation-text generation by Large Language Models (LLMs). We quantitatively evaluate our edge classifier on four different VRPs. The results demonstrate its rapid computation while maintaining reasonable accuracy, thereby highlighting its potential for deployment in practical applications. Moreover, on the subject of a tourist route, we qualitatively evaluate explanations generated by our framework. This evaluation not only validates our framework but also shows the synergy between explanation frameworks and LLMs. See https://ntt-dkiku.github.io/xai-vrp for our code, datasets, models, and demo.

Even-Ifs From If-Onlys: Are the Best Semi-Factual Explanations Found Using Counterfactuals As Guides?

Saugat Aryal, Mark T. Keane

Recently, counterfactuals using "if-only" explanations have become very popular in eXplainable AI (XAI), as they describe which changes to feature-inputs of a black-box AI system result in changes to a (usually negative) decision-outcome. Even more recently, semi-factuals using "even-if" explanations have gained more attention. They elucidate the feature-input changes that do not change the decision-outcome of the AI system, with a potential to suggest more beneficial recourses. Some semi-factual methods use counterfactuals to the query-instance to guide semi-factual production (so-called counterfactual-guided methods), whereas others do not (so-called counterfactual-free methods). In this work, we perform comprehensive tests of 8 semi-factual methods on 7 datasets using 5 key metrics, to determine whether counterfactual guidance is necessary to find the best semi-factuals. The results of these tests suggests not, but rather that computing other aspects of the decision space lead to better semi-factual XAI.

The evolution of deep learning and artificial intelligence has significantly reshaped technological landscapes. However, their effective application in crucial sectors such as medicine demands more than just superior performance, but trustworthiness as well. While interpretability plays a pivotal role, existing explainable AI (XAI) approaches often do not reveal {\em Clever Hans} behavior where a model makes (ungeneralizable) correct predictions using spurious correlations or biases in data. Likewise, current post-hoc XAI methods are susceptible to generating unjustified counterfactual examples. In this paper, we approach XAI with an innovative {\em model debugging} methodology realized through Jacobian Saliency Map (JSM). To cast the problem into a concrete context, we employ Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis as the use case, motivated by its significant impact on human lives and the formidable challenge in its early detection, stemming from the intricate nature of its progression. We introduce an interpretable, multimodal model for AD classification over its multi-stage progression, incorporating JSM as a modality-agnostic tool that provides insights into volumetric changes indicative of brain abnormalities. Our extensive evaluation including ablation study manifests the efficacy of using JSM for model debugging and interpretation, while significantly enhancing model accuracy as well.

Data forms the backbone of artificial intelligence (AI). Privacy and data protection laws thus have strong bearing on AI systems. Shielded by the rhetoric of compliance with data protection and privacy regulations, privacy-preserving techniques have enabled the extraction of more and new forms of data. We illustrate how the application of privacy-preserving techniques in the development of AI systems--from private set intersection as part of dataset curation to homomorphic encryption and federated learning as part of model computation--can further support surveillance infrastructure under the guise of regulatory permissibility. Finally, we propose technology and policy strategies to evaluate privacy-preserving techniques in light of the protections they actually confer. We conclude by highlighting the role that technologists could play in devising policies that combat surveillance AI technologies.

This paper presents an approach integrating explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques with adaptive learning to enhance energy consumption prediction models, with a focus on handling data distribution shifts. Leveraging SHAP clustering, our method provides interpretable explanations for model predictions and uses these insights to adaptively refine the model, balancing model complexity with predictive performance. We introduce a three-stage process: (1) obtaining SHAP values to explain model predictions, (2) clustering SHAP values to identify distinct patterns and outliers, and (3) refining the model based on the derived SHAP clustering characteristics. Our approach mitigates overfitting and ensures robustness in handling data distribution shifts. We evaluate our method on a comprehensive dataset comprising energy consumption records of buildings, as well as two additional datasets to assess the transferability of our approach to other domains, regression, and classification problems. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in both task types, resulting in improved predictive performance and interpretable model explanations.

The intersection of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and neuroscience in Explainable AI (XAI) is pivotal for enhancing transparency and interpretability in complex decision-making processes. This paper explores the evolution of XAI methodologies, ranging from feature-based to human-centric approaches, and delves into their applications in diverse domains, including healthcare and finance. The challenges in achieving explainability in generative models, ensuring responsible AI practices, and addressing ethical implications are discussed. The paper further investigates the potential convergence of XAI with cognitive sciences, the development of emotionally intelligent AI, and the quest for Human-Like Intelligence (HLI) in AI systems. As AI progresses towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), considerations of consciousness, ethics, and societal impact become paramount. The ongoing pursuit of deciphering the mysteries of the brain with AI and the quest for HLI represent transformative endeavors, bridging technical advancements with multidisciplinary explorations of human cognition.

Explainable AI (XAI) and interpretable machine learning methods help to build trust in model predictions and derived insights, yet also present a perverse incentive for analysts to manipulate XAI metrics to support pre-specified conclusions. This paper introduces the concept of X-hacking, a form of p-hacking applied to XAI metrics such as SHAP values. We show how easily an automated machine learning pipeline can be adapted to exploit model multiplicity at scale: searching a Rashomon set of 'defensible' models with similar predictive performance to find a desired explanation. We formulate the trade-off between explanation and accuracy as a multi-objective optimisation problem, and illustrate empirically on familiar real-world datasets that, on average, Bayesian optimisation accelerates X-hacking 3-fold for features susceptible to it, versus random sampling. We show the vulnerability of a dataset to X-hacking can be determined by information redundancy among features. Finally, we suggest possible methods for detection and prevention, and discuss ethical implications for the credibility and reproducibility of XAI.

The social NLP research community witness a recent surge in the computational advancements of mental health analysis to build responsible AI models for a complex interplay between language use and self-perception. Such responsible AI models aid in quantifying the psychological concepts from user-penned texts on social media. On thinking beyond the low-level (classification) task, we advance the existing binary classification dataset, towards a higher-level task of reliability analysis through the lens of explanations, posing it as one of the safety measures. We annotate the LoST dataset to capture nuanced textual cues that suggest the presence of low self-esteem in the posts of Reddit users. We further state that the NLP models developed for determining the presence of low self-esteem, focus more on three types of textual cues: (i) Trigger: words that triggers mental disturbance, (ii) LoST indicators: text indicators emphasizing low self-esteem, and (iii) Consequences: words describing the consequences of mental disturbance. We implement existing classifiers to examine the attention mechanism in pre-trained language models (PLMs) for a domain-specific psychology-grounded task. Our findings suggest the need of shifting the focus of PLMs from Trigger and Consequences to a more comprehensive explanation, emphasizing LoST indicators while determining low self-esteem in Reddit posts.