Research Papers

This work presents a conceptual framework for causal concept-based post-hoc Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), based on the requirements that explanations for non-interpretable models should be understandable as well as faithful to the model being explained. Local and global explanations are generated by calculating the probability of sufficiency of concept interventions. Example explanations are presented, generated with a proof-of-concept model made to explain classifiers trained on the CelebA dataset. Understandability is demonstrated through a clear concept-based vocabulary, subject to an implicit causal interpretation. Fidelity is addressed by highlighting important framework assumptions, stressing that the context of explanation interpretation must align with the context of explanation generation.

Shapley values, a gold standard for feature attribution in Explainable AI, face two key challenges. First, the canonical Shapley framework assumes that the worth function is additive, yet real-world payoff constructions--driven by non-Gaussian distributions, heavy tails, feature dependence, or domain-specific loss scales--often violate this assumption, leading to distorted attributions. Second, achieving sparse explanations in high-dimensional settings by computing dense Shapley values and then applying ad hoc thresholding is costly and risks inconsistency. We introduce Sparse Isotonic Shapley Regression (SISR), a unified nonlinear explanation framework. SISR simultaneously learns a monotonic transformation to restore additivity--obviating the need for a closed-form specification--and enforces an L0 sparsity constraint on the Shapley vector, enhancing computational efficiency in large feature spaces. Its optimization algorithm leverages Pool-Adjacent-Violators for efficient isotonic regression and normalized hard-thresholding for support selection, ensuring ease in implementation and global convergence guarantees. Analysis shows that SISR recovers the true transformation in a wide range of scenarios and achieves strong support recovery even in high noise. Moreover, we are the first to demonstrate that irrelevant features and inter-feature dependencies can induce a true payoff transformation that deviates substantially from linearity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SISR stabilizes attributions across payoff schemes and correctly filters irrelevant features; in contrast, standard Shapley values suffer severe rank and sign distortions. By unifying nonlinear transformation estimation with sparsity pursuit, SISR advances the frontier of nonlinear explainability, providing a theoretically grounded and practical attribution framework.

The widespread adoption of natural language processing techniques has led to an unprecedented growth of text classifiers across the modern web. Yet many of these models circulate with their internal semantics undocumented or even intentionally withheld. Such opaque classifiers, which may expose only hard-label outputs, can operate in unregulated web environments or be repurposed for unknown intents, raising legitimate forensic and auditing concerns. In this paper, we position ourselves as investigators and work to infer the semantic concept each label encodes in an undocumented black-box classifier. Specifically, we introduce label forensics, a black-box framework that reconstructs a label's semantic meaning. Concretely, we represent a label by a sentence embedding distribution from which any sample reliably reflects the concept the classifier has implicitly learned for that label. We believe this distribution should maintain two key properties: precise, with samples consistently classified into the target label, and general, covering the label's broad semantic space. To realize this, we design a semantic neighborhood sampler and an iterative optimization procedure to select representative seed sentences that jointly maximize label consistency and distributional coverage. The final output, an optimized seed sentence set combined with the sampler, constitutes the empirical distribution representing the label's semantics. Experiments on multiple black-box classifiers achieve an average label consistency of around 92.24 percent, demonstrating that the embedding regions accurately capture each classifier's label semantics. We further validate our framework on an undocumented HuggingFace classifier, enabling fine-grained label interpretation and supporting responsible AI auditing.

Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth using a high-dimensional panel of approximately 70 indicators, encompassing economic and financial indicators over 1990Q1-2023Q2. The analysis covers penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction methods, ensemble learning algorithms, and neural architectures, benchmarked against a Random Walk, an AR(3), and a Dynamic Factor Model. The pipeline preserves temporal ordering through an expanding-window walk-forward design with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, and uses moving block-bootstrap procedures both to construct prediction intervals and to obtain confidence bands for feature-importance measures. It adopts model-specific and XAI-based explainability tools. A Model Confidence Set procedure identifies statistically superior learners, which are then combined through simple, weighted, and exponentially weighted schemes; the resulting time-varying weights provide an interpretable representation of model contributions. Predictive ability is assessed via Giacomini-White tests. Empirical results show that penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction models, and GRU networks consistently outperform all benchmarks, with RMSFE reductions of roughly 40-60%; aggregation delivers further gains. Feature-attribution methods highlight industrial production, external trade, and labor-market indicators as dominant drivers of Singapore's short-run growth dynamics.

Foundation model reliability assessment typically requires thousands of evaluation examples, making it computationally expensive and time-consuming for real-world deployment. We introduce microprobe, a novel approach that achieves comprehensive reliability assessment using only 100 strategically selected probe examples. Our method combines strategic prompt diversity across five key reliability dimensions with advanced uncertainty quantification and adaptive weighting to efficiently detect potential failure modes. Through extensive empirical evaluation on multiple language models (GPT-2 variants, GPT-2 Medium, GPT-2 Large) and cross-domain validation (healthcare, finance, legal), we demonstrate that microprobe achieves 23.5% higher composite reliability scores compared to random sampling baselines, with exceptional statistical significance (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = 1.21). Expert validation by three AI safety researchers confirms the effectiveness of our strategic selection, rating our approach 4.14/5.0 versus 3.14/5.0 for random selection. microprobe completes reliability assessment with 99.9% statistical power while representing a 90% reduction in assessment cost and maintaining 95% of traditional method coverage. Our approach addresses a critical gap in efficient model evaluation for responsible AI deployment.

Macroeconomic nowcasting sits at the intersection of traditional econometrics, data-rich information systems, and AI applications in business, economics, and policy. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly used to nowcast quarterly GDP growth, but adoption in high-stakes settings requires that predictive accuracy be matched by interpretability and robust uncertainty quantification. This article reviews recent developments in macroeconomic nowcasting and compares econometric benchmarks with ML approaches in data-rich and shock-prone environments, emphasizing the use of nowcasts as decision inputs rather than as mere error-minimization exercises. The discussion is organized along three axes. First, we contrast penalized regressions, dimension-reduction techniques, tree ensembles, and neural networks with autoregressive models, Dynamic Factor Models, and Random Walks, emphasizing how each family handles small samples, collinearity, mixed frequencies, and regime shifts. Second, we examine explainability tools (intrinsic measures and model-agnostic XAI methods), focusing on temporal stability, sign coherence, and their ability to sustain credible economic narratives and nowcast revisions. Third, we analyze non-parametric uncertainty quantification via block bootstrapping for predictive intervals and confidence bands on feature importance under serial dependence and ragged edge. We translate these elements into a reference workflow for "decision-grade" nowcasting systems, including vintage management, time-aware validation, and automated reliability audits, and we outline a research agenda on regime-dependent model comparison, bootstrap design for latent components, and temporal stability of explanations. Explainable ML and uncertainty quantification emerge as structural components of a responsible forecasting pipeline, not optional refinements.

The intense computational demands of AI, especially large foundation models, are driving a global boom in data centers. These facilities bring both tangible benefits and potential environmental burdens to local communities. However, the planning processes for data centers often fail to proactively integrate local public opinion in advance, largely because traditional polling is expensive or is conducted too late to influence decisions. To address this gap, we introduce an AI agent polling framework, leveraging large language models to assess community opinion on data centers and guide responsible development of AI. Our experiments reveal water consumption and utility costs as primary concerns, while tax revenue is a key perceived benefit. Furthermore, our cross-model and cross-regional analyses show opinions vary significantly by LLM and regional context. Finally, agent responses show strong topical alignment with real-world survey data. Our framework can serve as a scalable screening tool, enabling developers to integrate community sentiment into early-stage planning for a more informed and socially responsible AI infrastructure deployment.

MATCH: Engineering Transparent and Controllable Conversational XAI Systems through Composable Building Blocks

Sebe Vanbrabant, Gustavo Rovelo Ruiz, Davy Vanacken

While the increased integration of AI technologies into interactive systems enables them to solve an increasing number of tasks, the black-box problem of AI models continues to spread throughout the interactive system as a whole. Explainable AI (XAI) techniques can make AI models more accessible by employing post-hoc methods or transitioning to inherently interpretable models. While this makes individual AI models clearer, the overarching system architecture remains opaque. This challenge not only pertains to standard XAI techniques but also to human examination and conversational XAI approaches that need access to model internals to interpret them correctly and completely. To this end, we propose conceptually representing such interactive systems as sequences of structural building blocks. These include the AI models themselves, as well as control mechanisms grounded in literature. The structural building blocks can then be explained through complementary explanatory building blocks, such as established XAI techniques like LIME and SHAP. The flow and APIs of the structural building blocks form an unambiguous overview of the underlying system, serving as a communication basis for both human and automated agents, thus aligning human and machine interpretability of the embedded AI models. In this paper, we present our flow-based approach and a selection of building blocks as MATCH: a framework for engineering Multi-Agent Transparent and Controllable Human-centered systems. This research contributes to the field of (conversational) XAI by facilitating the integration of interpretability into existing interactive systems.

The challenge of separating AI-generated text from human-authored content is becoming more urgent as generative AI technologies like ChatGPT become more widely available. In this work, we address this issue by looking at both the detection of content that has been entirely generated by AI and the identification of human text that has been reworded by AI. In our work, a comprehensive methodology to detect AI- generated text using XLM-RoBERTa, a state-of-the-art multilingual transformer model. Our approach includes rigorous preprocessing, and feature extraction involving perplexity, semantic, and readability features. We fine-tuned the XLM-RoBERTa model on a balanced dataset of human and AI-generated texts and evaluated its performance. The model demonstrated high accuracy and robust performance across various text genres. Additionally, we conducted feature analysis to understand the model's decision-making process, revealing that perplexity and attention-based features are critical in differentiating between human and AI-generated texts. Our findings offer a valuable tool for maintaining academic integrity and contribute to the broader field of AI ethics by promoting transparency and accountability in AI systems. Future research directions include exploring other advanced models and expanding the dataset to enhance the model's generalizability.

New methods are needed to monitor environmental treaties, like the Montreal Protocol, by reviewing large, complex customs datasets. This paper introduces a framework using unsupervised machine learning to systematically detect suspicious trade patterns and highlight activities for review. Our methodology, applied to 100,000 trade records, combines several ML techniques. Unsupervised Clustering (K-Means) discovers natural trade archetypes based on shipment value and weight. Anomaly Detection (Isolation Forest and IQR) identifies rare "mega-trades" and shipments with commercially unusual price-per-kilogram values. This is supplemented by Heuristic Flagging to find tactics like vague shipment descriptions. These layers are combined into a priority score, which successfully identified 1,351 price outliers and 1,288 high-priority shipments for customs review. A key finding is that high-priority commodities show a different and more valuable value-to-weight ratio than general goods. This was validated using Explainable AI (SHAP), which confirmed vague descriptions and high value as the most significant risk predictors. The model's sensitivity was validated by its detection of a massive spike in "mega-trades" in early 2021, correlating directly with the real-world regulatory impact of the US AIM Act. This work presents a repeatable unsupervised learning pipeline to turn raw trade data into prioritized, usable intelligence for regulatory groups.

The widespread use of Large Language Models (LLMs) raises critical concerns regarding the unauthorized inclusion of copyrighted content in training data. Existing detection frameworks, such as DE-COP, are computationally intensive, and largely inaccessible to independent creators. As legal scrutiny increases, there is a pressing need for a scalable, transparent, and user-friendly solution. This paper introduce an open-source copyright detection platform that enables content creators to verify whether their work was used in LLM training datasets. Our approach enhances existing methodologies by facilitating ease of use, improving similarity detection, optimizing dataset validation, and reducing computational overhead by 10-30% with efficient API calls. With an intuitive user interface and scalable backend, this framework contributes to increasing transparency in AI development and ethical compliance, facilitating the foundation for further research in responsible AI development and copyright enforcement.

Myofascial pain (MP) is a leading cause of chronic low back pain, yet its tissue-level drivers remain poorly defined and lack reliable image biomarkers. Existing studies focus predominantly on muscle while neglecting fascia, fat, and other soft tissues that play integral biomechanical roles. We developed an anatomically grounded explainable artificial intelligence (AI) framework, LAYER (Layer-wise Analysis for Yielding Explainable Relevance Tissue), that analyses six tissue layers in three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound and quantifies their contribution to MP prediction. By utilizing the largest multi-model 3D ultrasound cohort consisting of over 4,000 scans, LAYER reveals that non-muscle tissues contribute substantially to pain prediction. In B-mode imaging, the deep fascial membrane (DFM) showed the highest saliency (0.420), while in combined B-mode and shear-wave images, the collective saliency of non-muscle layers (0.316) nearly matches that of muscle (0.317), challenging the conventional muscle-centric paradigm in MP research and potentially affecting the therapy methods. LAYER establishes a quantitative, interpretable framework for linking layer-specific anatomy to pain physiology, uncovering new tissue targets and providing a generalizable approach for explainable analysis of soft-tissue imaging.