Research Papers

MCDFN: Supply Chain Demand Forecasting via an Explainable Multi-Channel Data Fusion Network Model

Md Abrar Jahin, Asef Shahriar, Md Al Amin

Accurate demand forecasting is crucial for optimizing supply chain management. Traditional methods often fail to capture complex patterns from seasonal variability and special events. Despite advancements in deep learning, interpretable forecasting models remain a challenge. To address this, we introduce the Multi-Channel Data Fusion Network (MCDFN), a hybrid architecture that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) to enhance predictive performance by extracting spatial and temporal features from time series data. Our comparative benchmarking demonstrates that MCDFN outperforms seven other deep-learning models, achieving superior metrics: MSE (23.5738), RMSE (4.8553), MAE (3.9991), and MAPE (20.1575%). Theil's U statistic of 0.1181 (U<1) of MCDFN indicates its superiority over the naive forecasting approach, and a 10-fold cross-validated statistical paired t-test with a p-value of 5% indicated no significant difference between MCDFN's predictions and actual values. We apply explainable AI techniques like ShapTime and Permutation Feature Importance to enhance interpretability. This research advances demand forecasting methodologies and offers practical guidelines for integrating MCDFN into supply chain systems, highlighting future research directions for scalability and user-friendly deployment.

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently degrades as the data distribution diverges from the training data distribution. Uncertainty estimation offers a solution to overconfident models, communicating when the output should (not) be trusted. Although methods for uncertainty estimation have been developed, they have not been explicitly linked to the field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Furthermore, literature in operations research ignores the actionability component of uncertainty estimation and does not consider distribution shifts. This work proposes a general uncertainty framework, with contributions being threefold: (i) uncertainty estimation in ML models is positioned as an XAI technique, giving local and model-specific explanations; (ii) classification with rejection is used to reduce misclassifications by bringing a human expert in the loop for uncertain observations; (iii) the framework is applied to a case study on neural networks in educational data mining subject to distribution shifts. Uncertainty as XAI improves the model's trustworthiness in downstream decision-making tasks, giving rise to more actionable and robust machine learning systems in operations research.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has mainly focused on static learning scenarios so far. We are interested in dynamic scenarios where data is sampled progressively, and learning is done in an incremental rather than a batch mode. We seek efficient incremental algorithms for computing feature importance (FI) measures, specifically, an incremental FI measure based on feature marginalization of absent features similar to permutation feature importance (PFI). We propose an efficient, model-agnostic algorithm called iPFI to estimate this measure incrementally and under dynamic modeling conditions including concept drift. We prove theoretical guarantees on the approximation quality in terms of expectation and variance. To validate our theoretical findings and the efficacy of our approaches compared to traditional batch PFI, we conduct multiple experimental studies on benchmark data with and without concept drift.

The use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) schemes has increased dramatically since their first introduction in 2015. Though uses in many different applications are being found, they still have a problem with the lack of interpretability. This has bread a lack of understanding and trust in the use of DRL solutions from researchers and the general public. To solve this problem, the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has emerged. This entails a variety of different methods that look to open the DRL black boxes, ranging from the use of interpretable symbolic Decision Trees (DT) to numerical methods like Shapley Values. This review looks at which methods are being used and for which applications. This is done to identify which models are the best suited to each application or if a method is being underutilised.

Advances in AI technologies have resulted in superior levels of AI-based model performance. However, this has also led to a greater degree of model complexity, resulting in 'black box' models. In response to the AI black box problem, the field of explainable AI (xAI) has emerged with the aim of providing explanations catered to human understanding, trust, and transparency. Yet, we still have a limited understanding of how xAI addresses the need for explainable AI in the context of healthcare. Our research explores the differing explanation needs amongst stakeholders during the development of an AI-system for classifying COVID-19 patients for the ICU. We demonstrate that there is a constellation of stakeholders who have different explanation needs, not just the 'user'. Further, the findings demonstrate how the need for xAI emerges through concerns associated with specific stakeholder groups i.e., the development team, subject matter experts, decision makers, and the audience. Our findings contribute to the expansion of xAI by highlighting that different stakeholders have different explanation needs. From a practical perspective, the study provides insights on how AI systems can be adjusted to support different stakeholders needs, ensuring better implementation and operation in a healthcare context.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)has received a great deal of attention recently. Explainability is being presented as a remedy for the distrust of complex and opaque models. Model agnostic methods such as LIME, SHAP, or Break Down promise instance-level interpretability for any complex machine learning model. But how faithful are these additive explanations? Can we rely on additive explanations for non-additive models? In this paper, we (1) examine the behavior of the most popular instance-level explanations under the presence of interactions, (2) introduce a new method that detects interactions for instance-level explanations, (3) perform a large scale benchmark to see how frequently additive explanations may be misleading.

The field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has greatly advanced in recent years, but progress has mainly been made in computer vision and natural language processing. For time series, where the input is often not interpretable, only limited research on XAI is available. In this work, we put forward a virtual inspection layer, that transforms the time series to an interpretable representation and allows to propagate relevance attributions to this representation via local XAI methods like layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP). In this way, we extend the applicability of a family of XAI methods to domains (e.g. speech) where the input is only interpretable after a transformation. Here, we focus on the Fourier transformation which is prominently applied in the interpretation of time series and LRP and refer to our method as DFT-LRP. We demonstrate the usefulness of DFT-LRP in various time series classification settings like audio and electronic health records. We showcase how DFT-LRP reveals differences in the classification strategies of models trained in different domains (e.g., time vs. frequency domain) or helps to discover how models act on spurious correlations in the data.

Multi-dimensional concept discovery (MCD): A unifying framework with completeness guarantees

Johanna Vielhaben, Stefan Blücher, Nils Strodthoff

The completeness axiom renders the explanation of a post-hoc XAI method only locally faithful to the model, i.e. for a single decision. For the trustworthy application of XAI, in particular for high-stake decisions, a more global model understanding is required. Recently, concept-based methods have been proposed, which are however not guaranteed to be bound to the actual model reasoning. To circumvent this problem, we propose Multi-dimensional Concept Discovery (MCD) as an extension of previous approaches that fulfills a completeness relation on the level of concepts. Our method starts from general linear subspaces as concepts and does neither require reinforcing concept interpretability nor re-training of model parts. We propose sparse subspace clustering to discover improved concepts and fully leverage the potential of multi-dimensional subspaces. MCD offers two complementary analysis tools for concepts in input space: (1) concept activation maps, that show where a concept is expressed within a sample, allowing for concept characterization through prototypical samples, and (2) concept relevance heatmaps, that decompose the model decision into concept contributions. Both tools together enable a detailed understanding of the model reasoning, which is guaranteed to relate to the model via a completeness relation. This paves the way towards more trustworthy concept-based XAI. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of MCD against more constrained concept definitions.

AI systems have seen significant adoption in various domains. At the same time, further adoption in some domains is hindered by inability to fully trust an AI system that it will not harm a human. Besides the concerns for fairness, privacy, transparency, and explainability are key to developing trusts in AI systems. As stated in describing trustworthy AI "Trust comes through understanding. How AI-led decisions are made and what determining factors were included are crucial to understand." The subarea of explaining AI systems has come to be known as XAI. Multiple aspects of an AI system can be explained; these include biases that the data might have, lack of data points in a particular region of the example space, fairness of gathering the data, feature importances, etc. However, besides these, it is critical to have human-centered explanations that are directly related to decision-making similar to how a domain expert makes decisions based on "domain knowledge," that also include well-established, peer-validated explicit guidelines. To understand and validate an AI system's outcomes (such as classification, recommendations, predictions), that lead to developing trust in the AI system, it is necessary to involve explicit domain knowledge that humans understand and use.

Objective. This paper presents an overview of generalizable and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) in deep learning (DL) for medical imaging, aimed at addressing the urgent need for transparency and explainability in clinical applications. Methodology. We propose to use four CNNs in three medical datasets (brain tumor, skin cancer, and chest x-ray) for medical image classification tasks. In addition, we perform paired t-tests to show the significance of the differences observed between different methods. Furthermore, we propose to combine ResNet50 with five common XAI techniques to obtain explainable results for model prediction, aiming at improving model transparency. We also involve a quantitative metric (confidence increase) to evaluate the usefulness of XAI techniques. Key findings. The experimental results indicate that ResNet50 can achieve feasible accuracy and F1 score in all datasets (e.g., 86.31\% accuracy in skin cancer). Furthermore, the findings show that while certain XAI methods, such as XgradCAM, effectively highlight relevant abnormal regions in medical images, others, like EigenGradCAM, may perform less effectively in specific scenarios. In addition, XgradCAM indicates higher confidence increase (e.g., 0.12 in glioma tumor) compared to GradCAM++ (0.09) and LayerCAM (0.08). Implications. Based on the experimental results and recent advancements, we outline future research directions to enhance the robustness and generalizability of DL models in the field of biomedical imaging.

FunnyBirds: A Synthetic Vision Dataset for a Part-Based Analysis of Explainable AI Methods

Robin Hesse, Simone Schaub-Meyer, Stefan Roth

The field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) aims to uncover the inner workings of complex deep neural models. While being crucial for safety-critical domains, XAI inherently lacks ground-truth explanations, making its automatic evaluation an unsolved problem. We address this challenge by proposing a novel synthetic vision dataset, named FunnyBirds, and accompanying automatic evaluation protocols. Our dataset allows performing semantically meaningful image interventions, e.g., removing individual object parts, which has three important implications. First, it enables analyzing explanations on a part level, which is closer to human comprehension than existing methods that evaluate on a pixel level. Second, by comparing the model output for inputs with removed parts, we can estimate ground-truth part importances that should be reflected in the explanations. Third, by mapping individual explanations into a common space of part importances, we can analyze a variety of different explanation types in a single common framework. Using our tools, we report results for 24 different combinations of neural models and XAI methods, demonstrating the strengths and weaknesses of the assessed methods in a fully automatic and systematic manner.

Although standard Machine Learning models are optimized for making predictions about observations, more and more they are used for making predictions about the results of actions. An important goal of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to compensate for this mismatch by offering explanations about the predictions of an ML-model which ensure that they are reliably action-guiding. As action-guiding explanations are causal explanations, the literature on this topic is starting to embrace insights from the literature on causal models. Here I take a step further down this path by formally defining the causal notions of sufficient explanations and counterfactual explanations. I show how these notions relate to (and improve upon) existing work, and motivate their adequacy by illustrating how different explanations are action-guiding under different circumstances. Moreover, this work is the first to offer a formal definition of actual causation that is founded entirely in action-guiding explanations. Although the definitions are motivated by a focus on XAI, the analysis of causal explanation and actual causation applies in general. I also touch upon the significance of this work for fairness in AI by showing how actual causation can be used to improve the idea of path-specific counterfactual fairness.