Research Papers

Current evaluation metrics for deep learning weather models create a "Statistical Similarity Trap", rewarding blurry predictions while missing rare, high-impact events. We provide quantitative evidence of this trap, showing sophisticated baselines achieve 97.9% correlation yet 0.00 CSI for dangerous convection detection. We introduce DART (Dual Architecture for Regression Tasks), a framework addressing the challenge of transforming coarse atmospheric forecasts into high-resolution satellite brightness temperature fields optimized for extreme convection detection (below 220 K). DART employs dual-decoder architecture with explicit background/extreme decomposition, physically motivated oversampling, and task-specific loss functions. We present four key findings: (1) empirical validation of the Statistical Similarity Trap across multiple sophisticated baselines; (2) the "IVT Paradox", removing Integrated Water Vapor Transport, widely regarded as essential for atmospheric river analysis, improves extreme convection detection by 270%; (3) architectural necessity demonstrated through operational flexibility (DART achieves CSI = 0.273 with bias = 2.52 vs. 6.72 for baselines at equivalent CSI), and (4) real-world validation with the August 2023 Chittagong flooding disaster as a case study. To our knowledge, this is the first work to systematically address this hybrid conversion-segmentation-downscaling task, with no direct prior benchmarks identified in existing literature. Our validation against diverse statistical and deep learning baselines sufficiently demonstrates DART's specialized design. The framework enables precise operational calibration through beta-tuning, trains in under 10 minutes on standard hardware, and integrates seamlessly with existing meteorological workflows, demonstrating a pathway toward trustworthy AI for extreme weather preparedness.

Automated visual inspection in medical-device manufacturing faces unique challenges, including extremely low defect rates, limited annotated data, hardware restrictions on production lines, and the need for validated, explainable artificial-intelligence systems. This paper presents two attention-guided autoencoder architectures that address these constraints through complementary anomaly-detection strategies. The first employs a multi-scale structural-similarity (4-MS-SSIM) index for inline inspection, enabling interpretable, real-time defect detection on constrained hardware. The second applies a Mahalanobis-distance analysis of randomly reduced latent features for efficient feature-space monitoring and lifecycle verification. Both approaches share a lightweight backbone optimised for high-resolution imagery for typical manufacturing conditions. Evaluations on the Surface Seal Image (SSI) dataset-representing sterile-barrier packaging inspection-demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform reference baselines, including MOCCA, CPCAE, and RAG-PaDiM, under realistic industrial constraints. Cross-domain validation on the MVTec-Zipper benchmark confirms comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art anomaly-detection methods. The dual-mode framework integrates inline anomaly detection and supervisory monitoring, advancing explainable AI architectures toward greater reliability, observability, and lifecycle monitoring in safety-critical manufacturing environments. To facilitate reproducibility, the source code developed for the experiments has been released in the project repository, while the datasets were obtained from publicly available sources.

Integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology in electric vehicles (EV) introduces unique challenges for safety assurance, particularly within the framework of ISO 26262, which governs functional safety in the automotive domain. Traditional assessment methodologies are not geared toward evaluating AI-based functions and require evolving standards and practices. This paper explores how an independent assessment of an AI component in an EV can be achieved when combining ISO 26262 with the recently released ISO/PAS 8800, whose scope is AI safety for road vehicles. The AI-driven State of Charge (SOC) battery estimation exemplifies the process. Key features relevant to the independent assessment of this extended evaluation approach are identified. As part of the evaluation, robustness testing of the AI component is conducted using fault injection experiments, wherein perturbed sensor inputs are systematically introduced to assess the component's resilience to input variance.

The stability of recursively trained large language models (LLMs) is a foundational problem for AI safety. Prevailing theory predicts model collapse, a progressive degradation when models are trained on their own output. We challenge this narrative by introducing a selective feedback mechanism. Contrary to expectation, instead of merely slowing decay, our experiments provide strong evidence that this pressure reverses it, inducing a statistically significant performance improvement in a Gemma 2B model on a complex summarization task. We name this phenomenon the Anti-Ouroboros Effect. We contrast this with a foundational experiment using a simple classifier, where the theoretical degenerative loop was validated, highlighting the unique dynamics of high-dimensional models. Our findings establish that systemic resilience can be an emergent property of LLMs under simple selection pressure, suggesting a powerful and scalable principle for developing safer and more robust AI systems. Across five generations, a quality-filtered condition improved by 6.6% in ROUGE-L F1 score, whereas an unfiltered control degraded by 3.5% and a random-filter control degraded by 4.2%

Predictive models are typically trained on historical data to predict future outcomes. While it is commonly assumed that training on more historical data would improve model performance and robustness, data distribution shifts over time may undermine these benefits. This study examines how expanding historical data training windows under covariate shifts (changes in feature distributions) and concept shifts (changes in feature-outcome relationships) affects the performance and algorithmic fairness of predictive models. First, we perform a simulation study to explore scenarios with varying degrees of covariate and concept shifts in training data. Absent distribution shifts, we observe performance gains from longer training windows though they reach a plateau quickly; in the presence of concept shift, performance may actually decline. Covariate shifts alone do not significantly affect model performance, but may complicate the impact of concept shifts. In terms of fairness, models produce more biased predictions when the magnitude of concept shifts differs across sociodemographic groups; for intersectional groups, these effects are more complex and not simply additive. Second, we conduct an empirical case study of student retention prediction, a common machine learning application in education, using 12 years of student records from 23 minority-serving community colleges in the United States. We find concept shifts to be a key contributor to performance degradation when expanding the training window. Moreover, model fairness is compromised when marginalized populations have distinct data distribution shift patterns from their peers. Overall, our findings caution against conventional wisdom that "more data is better" and underscore the importance of using historical data judiciously, especially when it may be subject to data distribution shifts, to improve model performance and fairness.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used for downstream tasks such as tabular classification, where ensuring fairness in their outputs is critical for inclusivity, equal representation, and responsible AI deployment. This study introduces a novel approach to enhancing LLM performance and fairness through the concept of a dynamic validation set, which evolves alongside the test set, replacing the traditional static validation approach. We also propose an iterative algorithm, SMITE, to select optimal in-context examples, with each example set validated against its corresponding dynamic validation set. The in-context set with the lowest total error is used as the final demonstration set. Our experiments across four different LLMs show that our proposed techniques significantly improve both predictive accuracy and fairness compared to baseline methods. To our knowledge, this is the first study to apply dynamic validation in the context of in-context learning for LLMs.

A deep learning model is often considered a black-box model, as its internal workings tend to be opaque to the user. Because of the lack of transparency, it is challenging to understand the reasoning behind the model's predictions. Here, we present an approach to making a deep learning-based solar storm prediction model interpretable, where solar storms include solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This deep learning model, built based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) network with an attention mechanism, aims to predict whether an active region (AR) on the Sun's surface that produces a flare within 24 hours will also produce a CME associated with the flare. The crux of our approach is to model data samples in an AR as time series and use the LSTM network to capture the temporal dynamics of the data samples. To make the model's predictions accountable and reliable, we leverage post hoc model-agnostic techniques, which help elucidate the factors contributing to the predicted output for an input sequence and provide insights into the model's behavior across multiple sequences within an AR. To our knowledge, this is the first time that interpretability has been added to an LSTM-based solar storm prediction model.

Recommender systems help users discover new content, but can also reinforce existing biases, leading to unfair exposure and reduced diversity. This paper introduces and investigates thematic bias in book recommendations, defined as a disproportionate favouring or neglect of certain book themes. We adopt a multi-stage bias evaluation framework using the Book-Crossing dataset to evaluate thematic bias in recommendations and its impact on different user groups. Our findings show that thematic bias originates from content imbalances and is amplified by user engagement patterns. By segmenting users based on their thematic preferences, we find that users with niche and long-tail interests receive less personalised recommendations, whereas users with diverse interests receive more consistent recommendations. These findings suggest that recommender systems should be carefully designed to accommodate a broader range of user interests. By contributing to the broader goal of responsible AI, this work also lays the groundwork for extending thematic bias analysis to other domains.

The prevalence of algorithmic bias in Machine Learning (ML)-driven approaches has inspired growing research on measuring and mitigating bias in the ML domain. Accordingly, prior research studied how to measure fairness in regression which is a complex problem. In particular, recent research proposed to formulate it as a density-ratio estimation problem and relied on a Logistic Regression-driven probabilistic classifier-based approach to solve it. However, there are several other methods to estimate a density ratio, and to the best of our knowledge, prior work did not study the sensitivity of such fairness measurement methods to the choice of underlying density ratio estimation algorithm. To fill this gap, this paper develops a set of fairness measurement methods with various density-ratio estimation cores and thoroughly investigates how different cores would affect the achieved level of fairness. Our experimental results show that the choice of density-ratio estimation core could significantly affect the outcome of fairness measurement method, and even, generate inconsistent results with respect to the relative fairness of various algorithms. These observations suggest major issues with density-ratio estimation based fairness measurement in regression and a need for further research to enhance their reliability.

The opaqueness of many complex machine learning algorithms is often mentioned as one of the main obstacles to the ethical development of artificial intelligence (AI). But what does it mean for an algorithm to be opaque? Highly complex algorithms such as artificial neural networks process enormous volumes of data in parallel along multiple hidden layers of interconnected nodes, rendering their inner workings epistemically inaccessible to any human being, including their designers and developers; they are "black boxes" for all their stakeholders. But opaqueness is not always the inevitable result of technical complexity. Sometimes, the way an algorithm works is intentionally hidden from view for proprietary reasons, especially in commercial automated decision systems, creating an entirely different type of opaqueness. In the first part of the chapter, we will examine these two ways of understanding opacity and the ethical implications that stem from each of them. In the second part, we explore the different explanatory methods that have been developed in computer science to overcome an AI system's technical opaqueness. As the analysis shows, explainable AI (XAI) still faces numerous challenges.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are an effective approach for classification tasks, particularly when the training dataset is large. Although CNNs have long been considered a black-box classification method, they can be used as a white-box method through visualization techniques such as Grad-CAM. When the training samples are limited, incorporating a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) layer and/or a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier into a CNN can effectively improve the classification performance. However, a conventional Grad-CAM cannot be directly applied to PCA and/or SVM layers. Generating attention regions for PCA and/or SVM layers in CNNs is important to facilitate the development of white-box methods. Therefore, we propose ``PCA-Grad-CAM'', a method for visualizing attention regions in PCA feature vectors, and ``SVM-Grad-CAM'', a method for visualizing attention regions in an SVM classifier layer. Solving a closed-form Jacobian problem comprising partial derivatives from the last convolutional layer to the PCA and/or SVM layers is necessary to complete the proposed methods analytically. In this paper, we present the exact closed-form Jacobian and visualization results of the proposed methods applied to several major datasets. In addition, the insertion and deletion metrics, which are major evaluation metrics in explainable AI, were applied to PCA- and SVM-Grad-CAM. The results suggest that the proposed method can successfully visualize the attention regions of PCA and SVM.

The field of explainable natural language processing (NLP) has grown rapidly in recent years. The growing opacity of complex models calls for transparency and explanations of their decisions, which is crucial to understand their reasoning and facilitate deployment, especially in high-stakes environments. Despite increasing attention given to explainable NLP, practitioners' perspectives regarding its practical adoption and effectiveness remain underexplored. This paper addresses this research gap by investigating practitioners' experiences with explainability methods, specifically focusing on their motivations for adopting such methods, the techniques employed, satisfaction levels, and the practical challenges encountered in real-world NLP applications. Through a qualitative interview-based study with industry practitioners and complementary interviews with academic researchers, we systematically analyze and compare their perspectives. Our findings reveal conceptual gaps, low satisfaction with current explainability methods, and highlight evaluation challenges. Our findings emphasize the need for clear definitions and user-centric frameworks for better adoption of explainable NLP in practice.