Research Papers

New methods are needed to monitor environmental treaties, like the Montreal Protocol, by reviewing large, complex customs datasets. This paper introduces a framework using unsupervised machine learning to systematically detect suspicious trade patterns and highlight activities for review. Our methodology, applied to 100,000 trade records, combines several ML techniques. Unsupervised Clustering (K-Means) discovers natural trade archetypes based on shipment value and weight. Anomaly Detection (Isolation Forest and IQR) identifies rare "mega-trades" and shipments with commercially unusual price-per-kilogram values. This is supplemented by Heuristic Flagging to find tactics like vague shipment descriptions. These layers are combined into a priority score, which successfully identified 1,351 price outliers and 1,288 high-priority shipments for customs review. A key finding is that high-priority commodities show a different and more valuable value-to-weight ratio than general goods. This was validated using Explainable AI (SHAP), which confirmed vague descriptions and high value as the most significant risk predictors. The model's sensitivity was validated by its detection of a massive spike in "mega-trades" in early 2021, correlating directly with the real-world regulatory impact of the US AIM Act. This work presents a repeatable unsupervised learning pipeline to turn raw trade data into prioritized, usable intelligence for regulatory groups.

Since 2012, tetrodotoxin (TTX) has been found in seafoods such as bivalve mollusks in temperate European waters. TTX contamination leads to food safety risks and economic losses, making early prediction of TTX contamination vital to the food industry and competent authorities. Recent studies have pointed to shallow habitats and water temperature as main drivers to TTX contamination in bivalve mollusks. However, the temporal relationships between abiotic factors, biotic factors, and TTX contamination remain unexplored. We have developed an explainable, deep learning-based model to predict TTX contamination in the Dutch Zeeland estuary. Inputs for the model were meteorological and hydrological features; output was the presence or absence of TTX contamination. Results showed that the time of sunrise, time of sunset, global radiation, water temperature, and chloride concentration contributed most to TTX contamination. Thus, the effective number of sun hours, represented by day length and global radiation, was an important driver for tetrodotoxin contamination in bivalve mollusks. To conclude, our explainable deep learning model identified the aforementioned environmental factors (number of sun hours, global radiation, water temperature, and water chloride concentration) to be associated with tetrodotoxin contamination in bivalve mollusks; making our approach a valuable tool to mitigate marine toxin risks for food industry and competent authorities.

Globally interpretable models are a promising approach for trustworthy AI in safety-critical domains. Alongside global explanations, detailed local explanations are a crucial complement to effectively support human experts during inference. This work proposes the Calibrated Hierarchical QPM (CHiQPM) which offers uniquely comprehensive global and local interpretability, paving the way for human-AI complementarity. CHiQPM achieves superior global interpretability by contrastively explaining the majority of classes and offers novel hierarchical explanations that are more similar to how humans reason and can be traversed to offer a built-in interpretable Conformal prediction (CP) method. Our comprehensive evaluation shows that CHiQPM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy as a point predictor, maintaining 99% accuracy of non-interpretable models. This demonstrates a substantial improvement, where interpretability is incorporated without sacrificing overall accuracy. Furthermore, its calibrated set prediction is competitively efficient to other CP methods, while providing interpretable predictions of coherent sets along its hierarchical explanation.

Myofascial pain (MP) is a leading cause of chronic low back pain, yet its tissue-level drivers remain poorly defined and lack reliable image biomarkers. Existing studies focus predominantly on muscle while neglecting fascia, fat, and other soft tissues that play integral biomechanical roles. We developed an anatomically grounded explainable artificial intelligence (AI) framework, LAYER (Layer-wise Analysis for Yielding Explainable Relevance Tissue), that analyses six tissue layers in three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound and quantifies their contribution to MP prediction. By utilizing the largest multi-model 3D ultrasound cohort consisting of over 4,000 scans, LAYER reveals that non-muscle tissues contribute substantially to pain prediction. In B-mode imaging, the deep fascial membrane (DFM) showed the highest saliency (0.420), while in combined B-mode and shear-wave images, the collective saliency of non-muscle layers (0.316) nearly matches that of muscle (0.317), challenging the conventional muscle-centric paradigm in MP research and potentially affecting the therapy methods. LAYER establishes a quantitative, interpretable framework for linking layer-specific anatomy to pain physiology, uncovering new tissue targets and providing a generalizable approach for explainable analysis of soft-tissue imaging.

Time-series forecasting remains difficult in real-world settings because temporal patterns operate at multiple scales, from broad contextual trends to fast, fine-grained fluctuations that drive critical decisions. Existing neural models often struggle to represent these interacting dynamics, leading to unstable predictions and reduced reliability in downstream applications. This work introduces a forecast-blur-denoise framework that improves temporal fidelity through structured noise modeling. The approach incorporates a learnable Gaussian Process module that generates smooth, correlated perturbations, encouraging the forecasting backbone to capture long-range structure while a dedicated refinement model restores high-resolution temporal detail. Training the components jointly enables natural competence division and avoids the artifacts commonly produced by isotropic corruption methods. Experiments across electricity, traffic, and solar datasets show consistent gains in multi-horizon accuracy and stability. The modular design also allows the blur-denoise layer to operate as a lightweight enhancement for pretrained models, supporting efficient adaptation in limited-data scenarios. By strengthening the reliability and interpretability of fine-scale temporal predictions, this framework contributes to more trustworthy AI systems used in forecasting-driven decision support across energy, infrastructure, and other time-critical domains.

This paper demonstrates that progressive localization, the gradual increase of attention locality from early distributed layers to late localized layers, represents the optimal architecture for creating interpretable large language models (LLMs) while preserving performance. Through systematic experimentation with GPT-2 fine-tuned on The Psychology of Artificial Superintelligence, we evaluate five locality configurations: two uniform baselines (fully distributed and fully localist) and three progressive polynomial schedules. We investigate whether interpretability constraints can be aligned with natural semantic structure while being applied strategically across network depth. We demonstrate that progressive semantic localization, combining adaptive semantic block partitioning with steep polynomial locality schedules, achieves near-baseline language modeling performance while providing interpretable attention patterns. Multiple independent training runs with different random seeds establish that results are statistically robust and highly reproducible. The approach dramatically outperforms both fixed-window localization and naive uniform locality constraints. Analysis reveals that maintaining flexibility through low-fidelity constraints preserves model capacity while providing interpretability benefits, and that steep schedules concentrating locality in decision-critical final layers while preserving distributed learning in early layers achieve near-baseline attention distribution characteristics. These findings demonstrate that interpretability mechanisms should align with semantic structure to achieve practical performance-interpretability tradeoffs for trustworthy AI systems.

Background and Objective: Deep learning models have high computational needs and lack interpretability but are often the first choice for medical image classification tasks. This study addresses whether complex neural networks are essential for the simple binary classification task of malaria. We introduce the Extracted Morphological Feature Engineered (EMFE) pipeline, a transparent, reproducible, and low compute machine learning approach tailored explicitly for simple cell morphology, designed to achieve deep learning performance levels on a simple CPU only setup with the practical aim of real world deployment. Methods: The study used the NIH Malaria Cell Images dataset, with two features extracted from each cell image: the number of non background pixels and the number of holes within the cell. Logistic Regression and Random Forest were compared against ResNet18, DenseNet121, MobileNetV2, and EfficientNet across accuracy, model size, and CPU inference time. An ensemble model was created by combining Logistic Regression and Random Forests to achieve higher accuracy while retaining efficiency. Results: The single variable Logistic Regression model achieved a test accuracy of 94.80 percent with a file size of 1.2 kB and negligible inference latency (2.3 ms). The two stage ensemble improved accuracy to 97.15 percent. In contrast, the deep learning methods require 13.6 MB to 44.7 MB of storage and show significantly higher inference times (68 ms). Conclusion: This study shows that a compact feature engineering approach can produce clinically meaningful classification performance while offering gains in transparency, reproducibility, speed, and deployment feasibility. The proposed pipeline demonstrates that simple interpretable features paired with lightweight models can serve as a practical diagnostic solution for environments with limited computational resources.

Few-Shot Semantic Segmentation (FSS) models achieve strong performance in segmenting novel classes with minimal labeled examples, yet their decision-making processes remain largely opaque. While explainable AI has advanced significantly in standard computer vision tasks, interpretability in FSS remains virtually unexplored despite its critical importance for understanding model behavior and guiding support set selection in data-scarce scenarios. This paper introduces the first dedicated method for interpreting matching-based FSS models by leveraging their inherent structural properties. Our Affinity Explainer approach extracts attribution maps that highlight which pixels in support images contribute most to query segmentation predictions, using matching scores computed between support and query features at multiple feature levels. We extend standard interpretability evaluation metrics to the FSS domain and propose additional metrics to better capture the practical utility of explanations in few-shot scenarios. Comprehensive experiments on FSS benchmark datasets, using different models, demonstrate that our Affinity Explainer significantly outperforms adapted standard attribution methods. Qualitative analysis reveals that our explanations provide structured, coherent attention patterns that align with model architectures and and enable effective model diagnosis. This work establishes the foundation for interpretable FSS research, enabling better model understanding and diagnostic for more reliable few-shot segmentation systems. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/pasqualedem/AffinityExplainer.

The vector cost bimatrix game is a method for multi-objective decision making that enables autonomous robotic systems to optimize for multiple goals at once while avoiding worst-case scenarios in neglected objectives. We expand this approach to arbitrary numbers of objectives and compare its performance to scalar weighted sum methods during competitive motion planning. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) software is used to aid in the analysis of high dimensional decision-making data. State-space Exploration of Multidimensional Boundaries using Adherence Strategies (SEMBAS) is applied to explore performance modes in the parameter space as a sensitivity study for the baseline and proposed frameworks. While some works have explored aspects of game theoretic planning and intelligent systems validation separately, we combine each of these into a novel and comprehensive simulation pipeline. This integration demonstrates a dramatic improvement of the vector cost method over scalarization and offers an interpretable and generalizable framework for robotic behavioral planning. Code available at https://github.com/toazbenj/race_simulation. The video companion to this work is available at https://tinyurl.com/vectorcostvideo.

Emotion recognition from social media is critical for understanding public sentiment, but accessing training data has become prohibitively expensive due to escalating API costs and platform restrictions. We introduce an interpretability-guided framework where Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) provide principled guidance for LLM-based synthetic data generation. With sufficient seed data, SHAP-guided approach matches real data performance, significantly outperforms naïve generation, and substantially improves classification for underrepresented emotion classes. However, our linguistic analysis reveals that synthetic text exhibits reduced vocabulary richness and fewer personal or temporally complex expressions than authentic posts. This work provides both a practical framework for responsible synthetic data generation and a critical perspective on its limitations, underscoring that the future of trustworthy AI depends on navigating the trade-offs between synthetic utility and real-world authenticity.

Explainable AI (XAI) is increasingly essential as modern models become more complex and high-stakes applications demand transparency, trust, and regulatory compliance. Existing global attribution methods often incur high computational costs, lack stability under correlated inputs, and fail to scale efficiently to large or heterogeneous datasets. We address these gaps with \emph{ExCIR} (Explainability through Correlation Impact Ratio), a correlation-aware attribution score equipped with a lightweight transfer protocol that reproduces full-model rankings using only a fraction of the data. ExCIR quantifies sign-aligned co-movement between features and model outputs after \emph{robust centering} (subtracting a robust location estimate, e.g., median or mid-mean, from features and outputs). We further introduce \textsc{BlockCIR}, a \emph{groupwise} extension of ExCIR that scores \emph{sets} of correlated features as a single unit. By aggregating the same signed-co-movement numerators and magnitudes over predefined or data-driven groups, \textsc{BlockCIR} mitigates double-counting in collinear clusters (e.g., synonyms or duplicated sensors) and yields smoother, more stable rankings when strong dependencies are present. Across diverse text, tabular, signal, and image datasets, ExCIR shows trustworthy agreement with established global baselines and the full model, delivers consistent top-$k$ rankings across settings, and reduces runtime via lightweight evaluation on a subset of rows. Overall, ExCIR provides \emph{computationally efficient}, \emph{consistent}, and \emph{scalable} explainability for real-world deployment.

Ransomware continues to evolve in complexity, making early and explainable detection a critical requirement for modern cybersecurity systems. This study presents a comparative analysis of three Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) (BERT, RoBERTa, and DeBERTa) for ransomware detection using two structured datasets: UGRansome and Process Memory (PM). Since LLMs are primarily designed for natural language processing (NLP), numerical and categorical ransomware features were transformed into textual sequences using KBinsDiscretizer and token-based encoding. This enabled the models to learn behavioural patterns from system activity and network traffic through contextual embeddings. The models were fine-tuned on approximately 2,500 labelled samples and evaluated using accuracy, F1 score, and ROC-AUC. To ensure transparent decision-making in this high-stakes domain, two explainable AI techniques (LIME and SHAP) were applied to interpret feature contributions. The results show that the models learn distinct ransomware-related cues: BERT relies heavily on dominant file-operation features, RoBERTa demonstrates balanced reliance on network and financial signals, while DeBERTa exhibits strong sensitivity to financial and network-traffic indicators. Visualisation of embeddings further reveals structural differences in token representation, with RoBERTa producing more isotropic embeddings and DeBERTa capturing highly directional, disentangled patterns. In general, RoBERTa achieved the strongest F1-score, while BERT yielded the highest ROC-AUC performance. The integration of LLMs with XAI provides a transparent framework capable of identifying feature-level evidence behind ransomware predictions.