Research Papers

An Attention-Based Stochastic Simulator for Multisite Extremes to Evaluate Nonstationary, Cascading Flood Risk

Adam Nayak, Pierre Gentine, Upmanu Lall

Flood risk is correlated in space and time, challenging insurance systems that rely on diversification across assets. Financial instruments governing flood coverage are typically structured as 1 to 5-year contracts, exposing portfolios to climate-driven risk at interannual-to-decadal scales. Yet existing tools address climate risk either through seasonal forecasts extending only months or multidecadal projections misaligned with fiscal horizons, leaving a critical gap in actionable flood risk simulation. We introduce a multisite flood simulation framework combining attention-based analog retrieval with stochastic generation of multivariate flood frequency, intensity, and duration sequences. Applied to over 100 sites in the Mississippi River Basin, the model produces spatiotemporally coherent flood portfolios conditioned on interannual climate variability. Explainable AI attribution paired with wavelet analysis links simulated clustering to large-scale climate drivers, yielding physically interpretable flood clusters for portfolio-scale loss simulation. The framework provides plausible, out-of-sample flood risk catalogs for interannual-to-decadal insurance risk assessment and financial planning.

Predicting default is essential for banks to ensure profitability and financial stability. While modern machine learning methods often outperform traditional regression techniques, their lack of transparency limits their use in regulated environments. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has emerged as a solution in domains like credit scoring. However, most XAI research focuses on post-hoc interpretation of black-box models, which does not produce models lightweight or transparent enough to meet regulatory requirements, such as those for Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) models. This paper proposes a hybrid approach: post-hoc interpretations of black-box models guide feature selection, followed by training glass-box models that maintain both predictive power and transparency. Using the Lending Club dataset, we demonstrate that this approach achieves performance comparable to a benchmark black-box model while using only 10 features - an 88.5% reduction. In our example, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) is used for feature selection, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) serves as the benchmark and the base black-box model, and Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) and Penalized Logistic Tree Regression (PLTR) are the investigated glass-box models. We also show that model refinement using feature interaction analysis, correlation checks, and expert input can further enhance model interpretability and robustness.

Uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in medical practice, but current medical AI systems fail to explicitly quantify or communicate uncertainty in a way that aligns with clinical reasoning. Existing XAI works focus on interpreting model predictions but do not capture the confidence or reliability of these predictions. Conversely, uncertainty estimation (UE) techniques provide confidence measures but lack intuitive explanations. The disconnect between these two areas limits AI adoption in medicine. To address this gap, we propose Explainable Uncertainty Estimation (XUE) that integrates explainability with uncertainty quantification to enhance trust and usability in medical AI. We systematically map medical uncertainty to AI uncertainty concepts and identify key challenges in implementing XUE. We outline technical directions for advancing XUE, including multimodal uncertainty quantification, model-agnostic visualization techniques, and uncertainty-aware decision support systems. Lastly, we propose guiding principles to ensure effective XUE realisation. Our analysis highlights the need for AI systems that not only generate reliable predictions but also articulate confidence levels in a clinically meaningful way. This work contributes to the development of trustworthy medical AI by bridging explainability and uncertainty, paving the way for AI systems that are aligned with real-world clinical complexities.

Evaluating explainable AI (XAI) approaches is a challenging task in general, due to the subjectivity of explanations. In this paper, we focus on tabular data and the specific use case of AI models predicting the values of Boolean functions. We extend the previous work in this domain by proposing a formal and precise measure of importance of variables based on actual causality, and we evaluate state-of-the-art XAI tools against this measure. We also present a novel XAI tool B-ReX, based on the existing tool ReX, and demonstrate that it is superior to other black-box XAI tools on a large-scale benchmark. Specifically, B-ReX achieves a Jensen-Shannon divergence of 0.072 $\pm$ 0.012 on random 10-valued Boolean formulae

The classification of network traffic using machine learning (ML) models is one of the primary mechanisms to address the security issues in IoT networks and/or IoT devices. However, the ML models often act as black-boxes that create a roadblock to take critical decision based on the model output. To address this problem, we design and develop a system, called rCamInspector, that employs Explainable AI (XAI) to provide reliable and trustworthy explanations to model output. rCamInspector adopts two classifiers, Flow Classifier - categorizes a flow into one of four classes, IoTCam, Conf, Share and Others, and SmartCam Classifier - classifies an IoTCam flow into one of six classes, Netatmo, Spy Clock, Canary, D3D, Ezviz, V380 Spy Bulb; both are IP address and transport port agnostic. rCamInspector is evaluated using 38GB of network traffic and our results show that XGB achieves the highest accuracy of 92% and 99% in the Flow and SmartCam classifiers respectively among eight supervised ML models. We analytically show that the traditional mutual information (MI) based feature importance cannot provide enough reliability on the model output of XGB in either classifiers. Using SHAP and LIME, we show that a separate set of features can be picked up to explain a correct prediction of XGB. For example, the feature Init Bwd Win Byts turns out to have the highest SHAP values to support the correct prediction of both IoTCam in Flow Classifier and Netatmo class in SmartCam Classifier. To evaluate the faithfulness of the explainers on our dataset, we show that both SHAP and LIME have a consistency of more than 0.7 and a sufficiency of 1.0. Comparing with existing works, we show that rCamInspector achieves a better accuracy (99%), precision (99%), and false negative rate (0.7%).

We use artificial intelligence (AI) and supervisory adaptive control systems to plan and optimize the mission of precise spacecraft formation. Machine learning and robust control enhance the efficiency of spacecraft precision formation of the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation (VTXO) space mission. VTXO is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft making a virtual telescope with a one-kilometer focal length. One spacecraft carries the lens and the other spacecraft holds the camera to observe high-energy space objects in the X-ray domain with 55 milli-arcsecond angular resolution accuracy. Timed automata for supervisory control, Monte Carlo simulations for stability and robustness evaluation, and integration of deep neural networks for optimal estimation of mission parameters, satisfy the high precision mission criteria. We integrate deep neural networks with a constrained, non-convex dynamic optimization pipeline to predict optimal mission parameters, ensuring precision mission criteria are met. AI framework provides explainability by predicting the resulting energy consumption and mission error for a given set of mission parameters. It allows for transparent, justifiable, and real-time trade-offs, a capability not present in traditional adaptive controllers. The results show reductions in energy consumption and improved mission accuracy, demonstrating the capability of the system to address dynamic uncertainties and disturbances.

Automated visual inspection in medical-device manufacturing faces unique challenges, including extremely low defect rates, limited annotated data, hardware restrictions on production lines, and the need for validated, explainable artificial-intelligence systems. This paper presents two attention-guided autoencoder architectures that address these constraints through complementary anomaly-detection strategies. The first employs a multi-scale structural-similarity (4-MS-SSIM) index for inline inspection, enabling interpretable, real-time defect detection on constrained hardware. The second applies a Mahalanobis-distance analysis of randomly reduced latent features for efficient feature-space monitoring and lifecycle verification. Both approaches share a lightweight backbone optimised for high-resolution imagery for typical manufacturing conditions. Evaluations on the Surface Seal Image (SSI) dataset-representing sterile-barrier packaging inspection-demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform reference baselines, including MOCCA, CPCAE, and RAG-PaDiM, under realistic industrial constraints. Cross-domain validation on the MVTec-Zipper benchmark confirms comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art anomaly-detection methods. The dual-mode framework integrates inline anomaly detection and supervisory monitoring, advancing explainable AI architectures toward greater reliability, observability, and lifecycle monitoring in safety-critical manufacturing environments. To facilitate reproducibility, the source code developed for the experiments has been released in the project repository, while the datasets were obtained from publicly available sources.

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods have been applied to interpret deep learning model results. However, applications that integrate XAI with established hydrologic knowledge for process understanding remain limited. Here we show that XAI method, applied at point-scale, could be used for cross-scale aggregation of hydrologic responses, a fundamental question in scaling problems, using hydrologic connectivity as a demonstration. Soil moisture and its movement generated by physically based hydrologic model were used to train a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, whose impacts of inputs were evaluated by XAI methods. Our results suggest that XAI-based classification can effectively identify the differences in the functional roles of various sub-regions at watershed scale. The aggregated XAI results could be considered as an explicit and quantitative indicator of hydrologic connectivity development, offering insights to hydrological organization. This framework could be used to facilitate aggregation of other geophysical responses to advance process understandings.

It is known that big data analytics and AI pose a threat to privacy, and that some of this is due to some kind of "black box problem" in AI. I explain how this becomes a problem in the context of justification for judgments and actions. Furthermore, I suggest distinguishing three kinds of opacity: 1) the subjects do not know what the system does ("shallow opacity"), 2) the analysts do not know what the system does ("standard black box opacity"), or 3) the analysts cannot possibly know what the system might do ("deep opacity"). If the agents, data subjects as well as analytics experts, operate under opacity, then these agents cannot provide justifications for judgments that are necessary to protect privacy, e.g., they cannot give "informed consent", or guarantee "anonymity". It follows from these points that agents in big data analytics and AI often cannot make the judgments needed to protect privacy. So I conclude that big data analytics makes the privacy problems worse and the remedies less effective. As a positive note, I provide a brief outlook on technical ways to handle this situation.

The development of many vision models mainly focuses on improving their performance using metrics such as accuracy, IoU, and mAP, with less attention to explainability due to the complexity of applying xAI methods to provide a meaningful explanation of trained models. Although many existing xAI methods aim to explain vision models sample-by-sample, methods explaining the general behavior of vision models, which can only be captured after running on a large dataset, are still underexplored. Furthermore, understanding the behavior of vision models on general images can be very important to prevent biased judgments and help identify the model's trends and patterns. With the application of Vision-Language Models, this paper proposes a pipeline to explain vision models at both the sample and dataset levels. The proposed pipeline can be used to discover failure cases and gain insights into vision models with minimal effort, thereby integrating vision model development with xAI analysis to advance image analysis.

Effective Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) relies upon accurately structured and semantically enriched information extracted from cybersecurity system logs. However, current methodologies often struggle to identify and interpret malicious events reliably and transparently, particularly in cases involving unstructured or ambiguous log entries. In this work, we propose a novel methodology that combines ontology-driven structured outputs with Large Language Models (LLMs), to build an Artificial Intelligence (AI) agent that improves the accuracy and explainability of information extraction from cybersecurity logs. Central to our approach is the integration of domain ontologies and SHACL-based constraints to guide the language model's output structure and enforce semantic validity over the resulting graph. Extracted information is organized into an ontology-enriched graph database, enabling future semantic analysis and querying. The design of our methodology is motivated by the analytical requirements associated with honeypot log data, which typically comprises predominantly malicious activity. While our case study illustrates the relevance of this scenario, the experimental evaluation is conducted using publicly available datasets. Results demonstrate that our method achieves higher accuracy in information extraction compared to traditional prompt-only approaches, with a deliberate focus on extraction quality rather than processing speed.

A deep learning model is often considered a black-box model, as its internal workings tend to be opaque to the user. Because of the lack of transparency, it is challenging to understand the reasoning behind the model's predictions. Here, we present an approach to making a deep learning-based solar storm prediction model interpretable, where solar storms include solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This deep learning model, built based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) network with an attention mechanism, aims to predict whether an active region (AR) on the Sun's surface that produces a flare within 24 hours will also produce a CME associated with the flare. The crux of our approach is to model data samples in an AR as time series and use the LSTM network to capture the temporal dynamics of the data samples. To make the model's predictions accountable and reliable, we leverage post hoc model-agnostic techniques, which help elucidate the factors contributing to the predicted output for an input sequence and provide insights into the model's behavior across multiple sequences within an AR. To our knowledge, this is the first time that interpretability has been added to an LSTM-based solar storm prediction model.