Research Papers

This paper explores the integration of Explainable Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) in the realm of financial engineering, specifically focusing on its application in credit decision-making. The rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in finance has necessitated a balance between sophisticated algorithmic decision-making and the need for transparency in these systems. The focus is on how AutoML can streamline the development of robust machine learning models for credit scoring, while Explainable AI (XAI) methods, particularly SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), provide insights into the models' decision-making processes. This study demonstrates how the combination of AutoML and XAI not only enhances the efficiency and accuracy of credit decisions but also fosters trust and collaboration between humans and AI systems. The findings underscore the potential of explainable AutoML in improving the transparency and accountability of AI-driven financial decisions, aligning with regulatory requirements and ethical considerations.

Shapley values, originating in game theory and increasingly prominent in explainable AI, have been proposed to assess the contribution of facts in query answering over databases, along with other similar power indices such as Banzhaf values. In this work we adapt these Shapley-like scores to probabilistic settings, the objective being to compute their expected value. We show that the computations of expected Shapley values and of the expected values of Boolean functions are interreducible in polynomial time, thus obtaining the same tractability landscape. We investigate the specific tractable case where Boolean functions are represented as deterministic decomposable circuits, designing a polynomial-time algorithm for this setting. We present applications to probabilistic databases through database provenance, and an effective implementation of this algorithm within the ProvSQL system, which experimentally validates its feasibility over a standard benchmark.

Background: Accurate survival time estimates aid end-of-life medical decision-making. Objectives: Develop an interpretable survival model for elderly residential aged care residents using advanced machine learning. Setting: A major Australasian residential aged care provider. Participants: Residents aged 65+ admitted for long-term care from July 2017 to August 2023. Sample size: 11,944 residents across 40 facilities. Predictors: Factors include age, gender, health status, co-morbidities, cognitive function, mood, nutrition, mobility, smoking, sleep, skin integrity, and continence. Outcome: Probability of survival post-admission, specifically calibrated for 6-month survival estimates. Statistical Analysis: Tested CoxPH, EN, RR, Lasso, GB, XGB, and RF models in 20 experiments with a 90/10 train/test split. Evaluated accuracy using C-index, Harrell's C-index, dynamic AUROC, IBS, and calibrated ROC. Chose XGB for its performance and calibrated it for 1, 3, 6, and 12-month predictions using Platt scaling. Employed SHAP values to analyze predictor impacts. Results: GB, XGB, and RF models showed the highest C-Index values (0.714, 0.712, 0.712). The optimal XGB model demonstrated a 6-month survival prediction AUROC of 0.746 (95% CI 0.744-0.749). Key mortality predictors include age, male gender, mobility, health status, pressure ulcer risk, and appetite. Conclusions: The study successfully applies machine learning to create a survival model for aged care, aligning with clinical insights on mortality risk factors and enhancing model interpretability and clinical utility through explainable AI.

Despite large progress in Explainable and Safe AI, practitioners suffer from a lack of regulation and standards for AI safety. In this work we merge recent regulation efforts by the European Union and first proposals for AI guidelines with recent trends in research: data and model cards. We propose the use of standardized cards to document AI applications throughout the development process. Our main contribution is the introduction of use-case and operation cards, along with updates for data and model cards to cope with regulatory requirements. We reference both recent research as well as the source of the regulation in our cards and provide references to additional support material and toolboxes whenever possible. The goal is to design cards that help practitioners develop safe AI systems throughout the development process, while enabling efficient third-party auditing of AI applications, being easy to understand, and building trust in the system. Our work incorporates insights from interviews with certification experts as well as developers and individuals working with the developed AI applications.

Language models have the potential to assess mental health using social media data. By analyzing online posts and conversations, these models can detect patterns indicating mental health conditions like depression, anxiety, or suicidal thoughts. They examine keywords, language markers, and sentiment to gain insights into an individual's mental well-being. This information is crucial for early detection, intervention, and support, improving mental health care and prevention strategies. However, using language models for mental health assessments from social media has two limitations: (1) They do not compare posts against clinicians' diagnostic processes, and (2) It's challenging to explain language model outputs using concepts that the clinician can understand, i.e., clinician-friendly explanations. In this study, we introduce Process Knowledge-infused Learning (PK-iL), a new learning paradigm that layers clinical process knowledge structures on language model outputs, enabling clinician-friendly explanations of the underlying language model predictions. We rigorously test our methods on existing benchmark datasets, augmented with such clinical process knowledge, and release a new dataset for assessing suicidality. PK-iL performs competitively, achieving a 70% agreement with users, while other XAI methods only achieve 47% agreement (average inter-rater agreement of 0.72). Our evaluations demonstrate that PK-iL effectively explains model predictions to clinicians.

Disentangling and Operationalizing AI Fairness at LinkedIn

Joaquin Quiñonero-Candela, Yuwen Wu, Brian Hsu +5

Operationalizing AI fairness at LinkedIn's scale is challenging not only because there are multiple mutually incompatible definitions of fairness but also because determining what is fair depends on the specifics and context of the product where AI is deployed. Moreover, AI practitioners need clarity on what fairness expectations need to be addressed at the AI level. In this paper, we present the evolving AI fairness framework used at LinkedIn to address these three challenges. The framework disentangles AI fairness by separating out equal treatment and equitable product expectations. Rather than imposing a trade-off between these two commonly opposing interpretations of fairness, the framework provides clear guidelines for operationalizing equal AI treatment complemented with a product equity strategy. This paper focuses on the equal AI treatment component of LinkedIn's AI fairness framework, shares the principles that support it, and illustrates their application through a case study. We hope this paper will encourage other big tech companies to join us in sharing their approach to operationalizing AI fairness at scale, so that together we can keep advancing this constantly evolving field.

Causality-Aided Trade-off Analysis for Machine Learning Fairness

Zhenlan Ji, Pingchuan Ma, Shuai Wang +1

There has been an increasing interest in enhancing the fairness of machine learning (ML). Despite the growing number of fairness-improving methods, we lack a systematic understanding of the trade-offs among factors considered in the ML pipeline when fairness-improving methods are applied. This understanding is essential for developers to make informed decisions regarding the provision of fair ML services. Nonetheless, it is extremely difficult to analyze the trade-offs when there are multiple fairness parameters and other crucial metrics involved, coupled, and even in conflict with one another. This paper uses causality analysis as a principled method for analyzing trade-offs between fairness parameters and other crucial metrics in ML pipelines. To ractically and effectively conduct causality analysis, we propose a set of domain-specific optimizations to facilitate accurate causal discovery and a unified, novel interface for trade-off analysis based on well-established causal inference methods. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study using three real-world datasets on a collection of widelyused fairness-improving techniques. Our study obtains actionable suggestions for users and developers of fair ML. We further demonstrate the versatile usage of our approach in selecting the optimal fairness-improving method, paving the way for more ethical and socially responsible AI technologies.

Feature importance techniques have enjoyed widespread attention in the explainable AI literature as a means of determining how trained machine learning models make their predictions. We consider Shapley value based approaches to feature importance, applied in the context of time series data. We present closed form solutions for the SHAP values of a number of time series models, including VARMAX. We also show how KernelSHAP can be applied to time series tasks, and how the feature importances that come from this technique can be combined to perform "event detection". Finally, we explore the use of Time Consistent Shapley values for feature importance.

MACE: An Efficient Model-Agnostic Framework for Counterfactual Explanation

Wenzhuo Yang, Jia Li, Caiming Xiong +1

Counterfactual explanation is an important Explainable AI technique to explain machine learning predictions. Despite being studied actively, existing optimization-based methods often assume that the underlying machine-learning model is differentiable and treat categorical attributes as continuous ones, which restricts their real-world applications when categorical attributes have many different values or the model is non-differentiable. To make counterfactual explanation suitable for real-world applications, we propose a novel framework of Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanation (MACE), which adopts a newly designed pipeline that can efficiently handle non-differentiable machine-learning models on a large number of feature values. in our MACE approach, we propose a novel RL-based method for finding good counterfactual examples and a gradient-less descent method for improving proximity. Experiments on public datasets validate the effectiveness with better validity, sparsity and proximity.

Actual causality and a closely related concept of responsibility attribution are central to accountable decision making. Actual causality focuses on specific outcomes and aims to identify decisions (actions) that were critical in realizing an outcome of interest. Responsibility attribution is complementary and aims to identify the extent to which decision makers (agents) are responsible for this outcome. In this paper, we study these concepts under a widely used framework for multi-agent sequential decision making under uncertainty: decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs). Following recent works in RL that show correspondence between POMDPs and Structural Causal Models (SCMs), we first establish a connection between Dec-POMDPs and SCMs. This connection enables us to utilize a language for describing actual causality from prior work and study existing definitions of actual causality in Dec-POMDPs. Given that some of the well-known definitions may lead to counter-intuitive actual causes, we introduce a novel definition that more explicitly accounts for causal dependencies between agents' actions. We then turn to responsibility attribution based on actual causality, where we argue that in ascribing responsibility to an agent it is important to consider both the number of actual causes in which the agent participates, as well as its ability to manipulate its own degree of responsibility. Motivated by these arguments we introduce a family of responsibility attribution methods that extends prior work, while accounting for the aforementioned considerations. Finally, through a simulation-based experiment, we compare different definitions of actual causality and responsibility attribution methods. The empirical results demonstrate the qualitative difference between the considered definitions of actual causality and their impact on attributed responsibility.

Despite the fact that variation is a fundamental characteristic of natural language, automatic speech recognition systems perform systematically worse on non-standardised and marginalised language varieties. In this paper we use the lens of language policy to analyse how current practices in training and testing ASR systems in industry lead to the data bias giving rise to these systematic error differences. We believe that this is a useful perspective for speech and language technology practitioners to understand the origins and harms of algorithmic bias, and how they can mitigate it. We also propose a re-framing of language resources as (public) infrastructure which should not solely be designed for markets, but for, and with meaningful cooperation of, speech communities.

Interpretable pipelines with evolutionarily optimized modules for RL tasks with visual inputs

Leonardo Lucio Custode, Giovanni Iacca

The importance of explainability in AI has become a pressing concern, for which several explainable AI (XAI) approaches have been recently proposed. However, most of the available XAI techniques are post-hoc methods, which however may be only partially reliable, as they do not reflect exactly the state of the original models. Thus, a more direct way for achieving XAI is through interpretable (also called glass-box) models. These models have been shown to obtain comparable (and, in some cases, better) performance with respect to black-boxes models in various tasks such as classification and reinforcement learning. However, they struggle when working with raw data, especially when the input dimensionality increases and the raw inputs alone do not give valuable insights on the decision-making process. Here, we propose to use end-to-end pipelines composed of multiple interpretable models co-optimized by means of evolutionary algorithms, that allows us to decompose the decision-making process into two parts: computing high-level features from raw data, and reasoning on the extracted high-level features. We test our approach in reinforcement learning environments from the Atari benchmark, where we obtain comparable results (with respect to black-box approaches) in settings without stochastic frame-skipping, while performance degrades in frame-skipping settings.