Research Papers

Interpretable Prognostics with Concept Bottleneck Models

Florent Forest, Katharina Rombach, Olga Fink

Deep learning approaches have recently been extensively explored for the prognostics of industrial assets. However, they still suffer from a lack of interpretability, which hinders their adoption in safety-critical applications. To improve their trustworthiness, explainable AI (XAI) techniques have been applied in prognostics, primarily to quantify the importance of input variables for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) using post-hoc attribution methods. In this work, we propose the application of Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs), a family of inherently interpretable neural network architectures based on concept explanations, to the task of RUL prediction. Unlike attribution methods, which explain decisions in terms of low-level input features, concepts represent high-level information that is easily understandable by users. Moreover, once verified in actual applications, CBMs enable domain experts to intervene on the concept activations at test-time. We propose using the different degradation modes of an asset as intermediate concepts. Our case studies on the New Commercial Modular AeroPropulsion System Simulation (N-CMAPSS) aircraft engine dataset for RUL prediction demonstrate that the performance of CBMs can be on par or superior to black-box models, while being more interpretable, even when the available labeled concepts are limited. Code available at \href{https://github.com/EPFL-IMOS/concept-prognostics/}{\url{github.com/EPFL-IMOS/concept-prognostics/}}.

Why do explanations fail? A typology and discussion on failures in XAI

Clara Bove, Thibault Laugel, Marie-Jeanne Lesot +2

As Machine Learning models achieve unprecedented levels of performance, the XAI domain aims at making these models understandable by presenting end-users with intelligible explanations. Yet, some existing XAI approaches fail to meet expectations: several issues have been reported in the literature, generally pointing out either technical limitations or misinterpretations by users. In this paper, we argue that the resulting harms arise from a complex overlap of multiple failures in XAI, which existing ad-hoc studies fail to capture. This work therefore advocates for a holistic perspective, presenting a systematic investigation of limitations of current XAI methods and their impact on the interpretation of explanations. % By distinguishing between system-specific and user-specific failures, we propose a typological framework that helps revealing the nuanced complexities of explanation failures. Leveraging this typology, we discuss some research directions to help practitioners better understand the limitations of XAI systems and enhance the quality of ML explanations.

As the adoption of explainable AI (XAI) continues to expand, the urgency to address its privacy implications intensifies. Despite a growing corpus of research in AI privacy and explainability, there is little attention on privacy-preserving model explanations. This article presents the first thorough survey about privacy attacks on model explanations and their countermeasures. Our contribution to this field comprises a thorough analysis of research papers with a connected taxonomy that facilitates the categorisation of privacy attacks and countermeasures based on the targeted explanations. This work also includes an initial investigation into the causes of privacy leaks. Finally, we discuss unresolved issues and prospective research directions uncovered in our analysis. This survey aims to be a valuable resource for the research community and offers clear insights for those new to this domain. To support ongoing research, we have established an online resource repository, which will be continuously updated with new and relevant findings. Interested readers are encouraged to access our repository at https://github.com/tamlhp/awesome-privex.

Deepfakes represent one of the toughest challenges in the world of Cybersecurity and Digital Forensics, especially considering the high-quality results obtained with recent generative AI-based solutions. Almost all generative models leave unique traces in synthetic data that, if analyzed and identified in detail, can be exploited to improve the generalization limitations of existing deepfake detectors. In this paper we analyzed deepfake images in the frequency domain generated by both GAN and Diffusion Model engines, examining in detail the underlying statistical distribution of Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) coefficients. Recognizing that not all coefficients contribute equally to image detection, we hypothesize the existence of a unique ``discriminative fingerprint", embedded in specific combinations of coefficients. To identify them, Machine Learning classifiers were trained on various combinations of coefficients. In addition, the Explainable AI (XAI) LIME algorithm was used to search for intrinsic discriminative combinations of coefficients. Finally, we performed a robustness test to analyze the persistence of traces by applying JPEG compression. The experimental results reveal the existence of traces left by the generative models that are more discriminative and persistent at JPEG attacks. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/opontorno/dcts_analysis_deepfakes.

Causal machine learning tools are beginning to see use in real-world policy evaluation tasks to flexibly estimate treatment effects. One issue with these methods is that the machine learning models used are generally black boxes, i.e., there is no globally interpretable way to understand how a model makes estimates. This is a clear problem in policy evaluation applications, particularly in government, because it is difficult to understand whether such models are functioning in ways that are fair, based on the correct interpretation of evidence and transparent enough to allow for accountability if things go wrong. However, there has been little discussion of transparency problems in the causal machine learning literature and how these might be overcome. This paper explores why transparency issues are a problem for causal machine learning in public policy evaluation applications and considers ways these problems might be addressed through explainable AI tools and by simplifying models in line with interpretable AI principles. It then applies these ideas to a case-study using a causal forest model to estimate conditional average treatment effects for a hypothetical change in the school leaving age in Australia. It shows that existing tools for understanding black-box predictive models are poorly suited to causal machine learning and that simplifying the model to make it interpretable leads to an unacceptable increase in error (in this application). It concludes that new tools are needed to properly understand causal machine learning models and the algorithms that fit them.

Deep Learning has already been successfully applied to analyze industrial sensor data in a variety of relevant use cases. However, the opaque nature of many well-performing methods poses a major obstacle for real-world deployment. Explainable AI (XAI) and especially feature attribution techniques promise to enable insights about how such models form their decision. But the plain application of such methods often fails to provide truly informative and problem-specific insights to domain experts. In this work, we focus on the specific task of detecting faults in rolling element bearings from vibration signals. We propose a novel and domain-specific feature attribution framework that allows us to evaluate how well the underlying logic of a model corresponds with expert reasoning. Utilizing the framework we are able to validate the trustworthiness and to successfully anticipate the generalization ability of different well-performing deep learning models. Our methodology demonstrates how signal processing tools can effectively be used to enhance Explainable AI techniques and acts as a template for similar problems.

This research investigates road traffic accident severity in the UK, using a combination of machine learning, econometric, and statistical methods on historical data. We employed various techniques, including correlation analysis, regression models, GMM for error term issues, and time-series forecasting with VAR and ARIMA models. Our approach outperforms naive forecasting with an MASE of 0.800 and ME of -73.80. We also built a random forest classifier with 73% precision, 78% recall, and a 73% F1-score. Optimizing with H2O AutoML led to an XGBoost model with an RMSE of 0.176 and MAE of 0.087. Factor Analysis identified key variables, and we used SHAP for Explainable AI, highlighting influential factors like Driver_Home_Area_Type and Road_Type. Our study enhances understanding of accident severity and offers insights for evidence-based road safety policies.

Learning by Self-Explaining

Wolfgang Stammer, Felix Friedrich, David Steinmann +3

Much of explainable AI research treats explanations as a means for model inspection. Yet, this neglects findings from human psychology that describe the benefit of self-explanations in an agent's learning process. Motivated by this, we introduce a novel workflow in the context of image classification, termed Learning by Self-Explaining (LSX). LSX utilizes aspects of self-refining AI and human-guided explanatory machine learning. The underlying idea is that a learner model, in addition to optimizing for the original predictive task, is further optimized based on explanatory feedback from an internal critic model. Intuitively, a learner's explanations are considered "useful" if the internal critic can perform the same task given these explanations. We provide an overview of important components of LSX and, based on this, perform extensive experimental evaluations via three different example instantiations. Our results indicate improvements via Learning by Self-Explaining on several levels: in terms of model generalization, reducing the influence of confounding factors, and providing more task-relevant and faithful model explanations. Overall, our work provides evidence for the potential of self-explaining within the learning phase of an AI model.

A Deep Dive into Perturbations as Evaluation Technique for Time Series XAI

Udo Schlegel, Daniel A. Keim

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has gained significant attention recently as the demand for transparency and interpretability of machine learning models has increased. In particular, XAI for time series data has become increasingly important in finance, healthcare, and climate science. However, evaluating the quality of explanations, such as attributions provided by XAI techniques, remains challenging. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of using perturbations to evaluate attributions extracted from time series models. A perturbation analysis involves systematically modifying the input data and evaluating the impact on the attributions generated by the XAI method. We apply this approach to several state-of-the-art XAI techniques and evaluate their performance on three time series classification datasets. Our results demonstrate that the perturbation analysis approach can effectively evaluate the quality of attributions and provide insights into the strengths and limitations of XAI techniques. Such an approach can guide the selection of XAI methods for time series data, e.g., focusing on return time rather than precision, and facilitate the development of more reliable and interpretable machine learning models for time series analysis.

The extensive utilization of biometric authentication systems have emanated attackers / imposters to forge user identity based on morphed images. In this attack, a synthetic image is produced and merged with genuine. Next, the resultant image is user for authentication. Numerous deep neural convolutional architectures have been proposed in literature for face Morphing Attack Detection (MADs) to prevent such attacks and lessen the risks associated with them. Although, deep learning models achieved optimal results in terms of performance, it is difficult to understand and analyse these networks since they are black box/opaque in nature. As a consequence, incorrect judgments may be made. There is, however, a dearth of literature that explains decision-making methods of black box deep learning models for biometric Presentation Attack Detection (PADs) or MADs that can aid the biometric community to have trust in deep learning-based biometric systems for identification and authentication in various security applications such as border control, criminal database establishment etc. In this work, we present a novel visual explanation approach named Ensemble XAI integrating Saliency maps, Class Activation Maps (CAM) and Gradient-CAM (Grad-CAM) to provide a more comprehensive visual explanation for a deep learning prognostic model (EfficientNet-B1) that we have employed to predict whether the input presented to a biometric authentication system is morphed or genuine. The experimentations have been performed on three publicly available datasets namely Face Research Lab London Set, Wide Multi-Channel Presentation Attack (WMCA), and Makeup Induced Face Spoofing (MIFS). The experimental evaluations affirms that the resultant visual explanations highlight more fine-grained details of image features/areas focused by EfficientNet-B1 to reach decisions along with appropriate reasoning.

Explaining Classifications to Non Experts: An XAI User Study of Post Hoc Explanations for a Classifier When People Lack Expertise

Courtney Ford, Mark T Keane

Very few eXplainable AI (XAI) studies consider how users understanding of explanations might change depending on whether they know more or less about the to be explained domain (i.e., whether they differ in their expertise). Yet, expertise is a critical facet of most high stakes, human decision making (e.g., understanding how a trainee doctor differs from an experienced consultant). Accordingly, this paper reports a novel, user study (N=96) on how peoples expertise in a domain affects their understanding of post-hoc explanations by example for a deep-learning, black box classifier. The results show that peoples understanding of explanations for correct and incorrect classifications changes dramatically, on several dimensions (e.g., response times, perceptions of correctness and helpfulness), when the image-based domain considered is familiar (i.e., MNIST) as opposed to unfamiliar (i.e., Kannada MNIST). The wider implications of these new findings for XAI strategies are discussed.

Parametrized Quantum Circuits (PQCs) enable a novel method for machine learning (ML). However, from a computational point of view they present a challenge to existing eXplainable AI (xAI) methods. On the one hand, measurements on quantum circuits introduce probabilistic errors which impact the convergence of these methods. On the other hand, the phase space of a quantum circuit expands exponentially with the number of qubits, complicating efforts to execute xAI methods in polynomial time. In this paper we will discuss the performance of established xAI methods, such as Baseline SHAP and Integrated Gradients. Using the internal mechanics of PQCs we study ways to speed up their computation.