Research Papers

Bayesian Neural Networks Avoid Encoding Complex and Perturbation-Sensitive Concepts

Qihan Ren, Huiqi Deng, Yunuo Chen +2

In this paper, we focus on mean-field variational Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) and explore the representation capacity of such BNNs by investigating which types of concepts are less likely to be encoded by the BNN. It has been observed and studied that a relatively small set of interactive concepts usually emerge in the knowledge representation of a sufficiently-trained neural network, and such concepts can faithfully explain the network output. Based on this, our study proves that compared to standard deep neural networks (DNNs), it is less likely for BNNs to encode complex concepts. Experiments verify our theoretical proofs. Note that the tendency to encode less complex concepts does not necessarily imply weak representation power, considering that complex concepts exhibit low generalization power and high adversarial vulnerability. The code is available at https://github.com/sjtu-xai-lab/BNN-concepts.

Gaining the trust of customers and providing them empathy are very critical in the financial domain. Frequent occurrence of fraudulent activities affects these two factors. Hence, financial organizations and banks must take utmost care to mitigate them. Among them, ATM fraudulent transaction is a common problem faced by banks. There following are the critical challenges involved in fraud datasets: the dataset is highly imbalanced, the fraud pattern is changing, etc. Owing to the rarity of fraudulent activities, Fraud detection can be formulated as either a binary classification problem or One class classification (OCC). In this study, we handled these techniques on an ATM transactions dataset collected from India. In binary classification, we investigated the effectiveness of various over-sampling techniques, such as the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and its variants, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), to achieve oversampling. Further, we employed various machine learning techniques viz., Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Tree (GBT), Multi-layer perceptron (MLP). GBT outperformed the rest of the models by achieving 0.963 AUC, and DT stands second with 0.958 AUC. DT is the winner if the complexity and interpretability aspects are considered. Among all the oversampling approaches, SMOTE and its variants were observed to perform better. In OCC, IForest attained 0.959 CR, and OCSVM secured second place with 0.947 CR. Further, we incorporated explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and causal inference (CI) in the fraud detection framework and studied it through various analyses.

Feature importance techniques have enjoyed widespread attention in the explainable AI literature as a means of determining how trained machine learning models make their predictions. We consider Shapley value based approaches to feature importance, applied in the context of time series data. We present closed form solutions for the SHAP values of a number of time series models, including VARMAX. We also show how KernelSHAP can be applied to time series tasks, and how the feature importances that come from this technique can be combined to perform "event detection". Finally, we explore the use of Time Consistent Shapley values for feature importance.

Shapelet-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Multivariate Time Series

Omar Bahri, Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi, Shah Muhammad Hamdi

As machine learning and deep learning models have become highly prevalent in a multitude of domains, the main reservation in their adoption for decision-making processes is their black-box nature. The Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) paradigm has gained a lot of momentum lately due to its ability to reduce models opacity. XAI methods have not only increased stakeholders' trust in the decision process but also helped developers ensure its fairness. Recent efforts have been invested in creating transparent models and post-hoc explanations. However, fewer methods have been developed for time series data, and even less when it comes to multivariate datasets. In this work, we take advantage of the inherent interpretability of shapelets to develop a model agnostic multivariate time series (MTS) counterfactual explanation algorithm. Counterfactuals can have a tremendous impact on making black-box models explainable by indicating what changes have to be performed on the input to change the final decision. We test our approach on a real-life solar flare prediction dataset and prove that our approach produces high-quality counterfactuals. Moreover, a comparison to the only MTS counterfactual generation algorithm shows that, in addition to being visually interpretable, our explanations are superior in terms of proximity, sparsity, and plausibility.

An increasing ubiquity of machine learning (ML) motivates research on algorithms to explain ML models and their predictions -- so-called eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). Despite many survey papers and discussions, the goals and capabilities of XAI algorithms are far from being well understood. We argue that this is because of a problematic reasoning scheme in XAI literature: XAI algorithms are said to complement ML models with desired properties, such as "interpretability", or "explainability". These properties are in turn assumed to contribute to a goal, like "trust" in an ML system. But most properties lack precise definitions and their relationship to such goals is far from obvious. The result is a reasoning scheme that obfuscates research results and leaves an important question unanswered: What can one expect from XAI algorithms? In this article, we clarify the goals and capabilities of XAI algorithms from a concrete perspective: that of their users. Explaining ML models is only necessary if users have questions about them. We show that users can ask diverse questions, but that only one of them can be answered by current XAI algorithms. Answering this core question can be trivial, difficult or even impossible, depending on the ML application. Based on these insights, we outline which capabilities policymakers, researchers and society can reasonably expect from XAI algorithms.

MACE: An Efficient Model-Agnostic Framework for Counterfactual Explanation

Wenzhuo Yang, Jia Li, Caiming Xiong +1

Counterfactual explanation is an important Explainable AI technique to explain machine learning predictions. Despite being studied actively, existing optimization-based methods often assume that the underlying machine-learning model is differentiable and treat categorical attributes as continuous ones, which restricts their real-world applications when categorical attributes have many different values or the model is non-differentiable. To make counterfactual explanation suitable for real-world applications, we propose a novel framework of Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanation (MACE), which adopts a newly designed pipeline that can efficiently handle non-differentiable machine-learning models on a large number of feature values. in our MACE approach, we propose a novel RL-based method for finding good counterfactual examples and a gradient-less descent method for improving proximity. Experiments on public datasets validate the effectiveness with better validity, sparsity and proximity.

Actual causality and a closely related concept of responsibility attribution are central to accountable decision making. Actual causality focuses on specific outcomes and aims to identify decisions (actions) that were critical in realizing an outcome of interest. Responsibility attribution is complementary and aims to identify the extent to which decision makers (agents) are responsible for this outcome. In this paper, we study these concepts under a widely used framework for multi-agent sequential decision making under uncertainty: decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs). Following recent works in RL that show correspondence between POMDPs and Structural Causal Models (SCMs), we first establish a connection between Dec-POMDPs and SCMs. This connection enables us to utilize a language for describing actual causality from prior work and study existing definitions of actual causality in Dec-POMDPs. Given that some of the well-known definitions may lead to counter-intuitive actual causes, we introduce a novel definition that more explicitly accounts for causal dependencies between agents' actions. We then turn to responsibility attribution based on actual causality, where we argue that in ascribing responsibility to an agent it is important to consider both the number of actual causes in which the agent participates, as well as its ability to manipulate its own degree of responsibility. Motivated by these arguments we introduce a family of responsibility attribution methods that extends prior work, while accounting for the aforementioned considerations. Finally, through a simulation-based experiment, we compare different definitions of actual causality and responsibility attribution methods. The empirical results demonstrate the qualitative difference between the considered definitions of actual causality and their impact on attributed responsibility.

Predictive business process monitoring (PPM) has been around for several years as a use case of process mining. PPM enables foreseeing the future of a business process through predicting relevant information about how a running process instance might end, related performance indicators, and other predictable aspects. A big share of PPM approaches adopts a Machine Learning (ML) technique to address a prediction task, especially non-process-aware PPM approaches. Consequently, PPM inherits the challenges faced by ML approaches. One of these challenges concerns the need to gain user trust in the predictions generated. The field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) addresses this issue. However, the choices made, and the techniques employed in a PPM task, in addition to ML model characteristics, influence resulting explanations. A comparison of the influence of different settings on the generated explanations is missing. To address this gap, we investigate the effect of different PPM settings on resulting data fed into an ML model and consequently to a XAI method. We study how differences in resulting explanations may indicate several issues in underlying data. We construct a framework for our experiments including different settings at each stage of PPM with XAI integrated as a fundamental part. Our experiments reveal several inconsistencies, as well as agreements, between data characteristics (and hence expectations about these data), important data used by the ML model as a result of querying it, and explanations of predictions of the investigated ML model.

Interpretable pipelines with evolutionarily optimized modules for RL tasks with visual inputs

Leonardo Lucio Custode, Giovanni Iacca

The importance of explainability in AI has become a pressing concern, for which several explainable AI (XAI) approaches have been recently proposed. However, most of the available XAI techniques are post-hoc methods, which however may be only partially reliable, as they do not reflect exactly the state of the original models. Thus, a more direct way for achieving XAI is through interpretable (also called glass-box) models. These models have been shown to obtain comparable (and, in some cases, better) performance with respect to black-boxes models in various tasks such as classification and reinforcement learning. However, they struggle when working with raw data, especially when the input dimensionality increases and the raw inputs alone do not give valuable insights on the decision-making process. Here, we propose to use end-to-end pipelines composed of multiple interpretable models co-optimized by means of evolutionary algorithms, that allows us to decompose the decision-making process into two parts: computing high-level features from raw data, and reasoning on the extracted high-level features. We test our approach in reinforcement learning environments from the Atari benchmark, where we obtain comparable results (with respect to black-box approaches) in settings without stochastic frame-skipping, while performance degrades in frame-skipping settings.

There has been recent and growing interest in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicles, encouraged by the empirical successes of powerful artificial intelligence techniques (AI), especially in the applications of deep learning and reinforcement learning. However, as demonstrated by recent traffic accidents, autonomous driving technology is not fully reliable for safe deployment. As AI is the main technology behind the intelligent navigation systems of self-driving vehicles, both the stakeholders and transportation regulators require their AI-driven software architecture to be safe, explainable, and regulatory compliant. In this paper, we propose a design framework that integrates autonomous control, explainable AI (XAI), and regulatory compliance to address this issue, and then provide an initial validation of the framework with a critical analysis in a case study. Moreover, we describe relevant XAI approaches that can help achieve the goals of the framework.

Vacuum Insulated Glazing (VIG) is a highly thermally insulating window technology, which boasts an extremely thin profile and lower weight as compared to gas-filled insulated glazing units of equivalent performance. The VIG is a double-pane configuration with a submillimeter vacuum gap between the panes and therefore under constant atmospheric pressure over their service life. Small pillars are positioned between the panes to maintain the gap, which can damage the glass reducing the lifetime of the VIG unit. To efficiently assess any surface damage on the glass, an automated damage detection system is highly desirable. For the purpose of classifying the damage, we have developed, trained, and tested a deep learning computer vision system using convolutional neural networks. The classification model flawlessly classified the test dataset with an area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of 100%. We have automatically cropped the images down to their relevant information by using Faster-RCNN to locate the position of the pillars. We employ the state-of-the-art methods Grad-CAM and Score-CAM of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to provide an understanding of the internal mechanisms and were able to show that our classifier outperforms ResNet50V2 for identification of crack locations and geometry. The proposed methods can therefore be used to detect systematic defects even without large amounts of training data. Further analyses of our model's predictive capabilities demonstrates its superiority over state-of-the-art models (ResNet50V2, ResNet101V2 and ResNet152V2) in terms of convergence speed, accuracy, precision at 100% recall and AUC for ROC.

While recent advances in AI-based automated decision-making have shown many benefits for businesses and society, they also come at a cost. It has for long been known that a high level of automation of decisions can lead to various drawbacks, such as automation bias and deskilling. In particular, the deskilling of knowledge workers is a major issue, as they are the same people who should also train, challenge and evolve AI. To address this issue, we conceptualize a new class of DSS, namely Intelligent Decision Assistance (IDA) based on a literature review of two different research streams -- DSS and automation. IDA supports knowledge workers without influencing them through automated decision-making. Specifically, we propose to use techniques of Explainable AI (XAI) while withholding concrete AI recommendations. To test this conceptualization, we develop hypotheses on the impacts of IDA and provide first evidence for their validity based on empirical studies in the literature.