Research Papers

With the rising concern on model interpretability, the application of eXplainable AI (XAI) tools on deepfake detection models has been a topic of interest recently. In image classification tasks, XAI tools highlight pixels influencing the decision given by a model. This helps in troubleshooting the model and determining areas that may require further tuning of parameters. With a wide range of tools available in the market, choosing the right tool for a model becomes necessary as each one may highlight different sets of pixels for a given image. There is a need to evaluate different tools and decide the best performing ones among them. Generic XAI evaluation methods like insertion or removal of salient pixels/segments are applicable for general image classification tasks but may produce less meaningful results when applied on deepfake detection models due to their functionality. In this paper, we perform experiments to show that generic removal/insertion XAI evaluation methods are not suitable for deepfake detection models. We also propose and implement an XAI evaluation approach specifically suited for deepfake detection models.

Regional climate models (RCMs) are essential tools for simulating and studying regional climate variability and change. However, their high computational cost limits the production of comprehensive ensembles of regional climate projections covering multiple scenarios and driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) across regions. RCM emulators based on deep learning models have recently been introduced as a cost-effective and promising alternative that requires only short RCM simulations to train the models. Therefore, evaluating their transferability to different periods, scenarios, and GCMs becomes a pivotal and complex task in which the inherent biases of both GCMs and RCMs play a significant role. Here we focus on this problem by considering the two different emulation approaches proposed in the literature (PP and MOS, following the terminology introduced in this paper). In addition to standard evaluation techniques, we expand the analysis with methods from the field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), to assess the physical consistency of the empirical links learnt by the models. We find that both approaches are able to emulate certain climatological properties of RCMs for different periods and scenarios (soft transferability), but the consistency of the emulation functions differ between approaches. Whereas PP learns robust and physically meaningful patterns, MOS results are GCM-dependent and lack physical consistency in some cases. Both approaches face problems when transferring the emulation function to other GCMs, due to the existence of GCM-dependent biases (hard transferability). This limits their applicability to build ensembles of regional climate projections. We conclude by giving some prospects for future applications.

The transition to a sustainable energy supply challenges the operation of electric power systems in manifold ways. Transmission grid loads increase as wind and solar power are often installed far away from the consumers. In extreme cases, system operators must intervene via countertrading or redispatch to ensure grid stability. In this article, we provide a data-driven analysis of congestion in the German transmission grid. We develop an explainable machine learning model to predict the volume of redispatch and countertrade on an hourly basis. The model reveals factors that drive or mitigate grid congestion and quantifies their impact. We show that, as expected, wind power generation is the main driver, but hydropower and cross-border electricity trading also play an essential role. Solar power, on the other hand, has no mitigating effect. Our results suggest that a change to the market design would alleviate congestion.

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) plays a crucial role in enabling human understanding and trust in deep learning systems. As models get larger, more ubiquitous, and pervasive in aspects of daily life, explainability is necessary to minimize adverse effects of model mistakes. Unfortunately, current approaches in human-centric XAI (e.g. predictive tasks in healthcare, education, or personalized ads) tend to rely on a single post-hoc explainer, whereas recent work has identified systematic disagreement between post-hoc explainers when applied to the same instances of underlying black-box models. In this paper, we therefore present a call for action to address the limitations of current state-of-the-art explainers. We propose a shift from post-hoc explainability to designing interpretable neural network architectures. We identify five needs of human-centric XAI (real-time, accurate, actionable, human-interpretable, and consistent) and propose two schemes for interpretable-by-design neural network workflows (adaptive routing with InterpretCC and temporal diagnostics with I2MD). We postulate that the future of human-centric XAI is neither in explaining black-boxes nor in reverting to traditional, interpretable models, but in neural networks that are intrinsically interpretable.

This study investigates the effectiveness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques in predicting suicide risks and identifying the dominant causes for such behaviours. Data augmentation techniques and ML models are utilized to predict the associated risk. Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and correlation analysis are used to rank the importance of variables in predictions. Experimental results indicate that Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models achieve the best results while DT has the best performance with an accuracy of 95:23% and an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.95. As per SHAP results, anger problems, depression, and social isolation are the leading variables in predicting the risk of suicide, and patients with good incomes, respected occupations, and university education have the least risk. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning and XAI framework for suicide risk prediction, and they can assist psychiatrists in understanding complex human behaviours and can also assist in reliable clinical decision-making.

AI Usage Cards: Responsibly Reporting AI-generated Content

Jan Philip Wahle, Terry Ruas, Saif M. Mohammad +2

Given AI systems like ChatGPT can generate content that is indistinguishable from human-made work, the responsible use of this technology is a growing concern. Although understanding the benefits and harms of using AI systems requires more time, their rapid and indiscriminate adoption in practice is a reality. Currently, we lack a common framework and language to define and report the responsible use of AI for content generation. Prior work proposed guidelines for using AI in specific scenarios (e.g., robotics or medicine) which are not transferable to conducting and reporting scientific research. Our work makes two contributions: First, we propose a three-dimensional model consisting of transparency, integrity, and accountability to define the responsible use of AI. Second, we introduce ``AI Usage Cards'', a standardized way to report the use of AI in scientific research. Our model and cards allow users to reflect on key principles of responsible AI usage. They also help the research community trace, compare, and question various forms of AI usage and support the development of accepted community norms. The proposed framework and reporting system aims to promote the ethical and responsible use of AI in scientific research and provide a standardized approach for reporting AI usage across different research fields. We also provide a free service to easily generate AI Usage Cards for scientific work via a questionnaire and export them in various machine-readable formats for inclusion in different work products at https://ai-cards.org.

Recently, eXplainable AI (XAI) research has focused on counterfactual explanations as post-hoc justifications for AI-system decisions (e.g. a customer refused a loan might be told: If you asked for a loan with a shorter term, it would have been approved). Counterfactuals explain what changes to the input-features of an AI system change the output-decision. However, there is a sub-type of counterfactual, semi-factuals, that have received less attention in AI (though the Cognitive Sciences have studied them extensively). This paper surveys these literatures to summarise historical and recent breakthroughs in this area. It defines key desiderata for semi-factual XAI and reports benchmark tests of historical algorithms (along with a novel, naieve method) to provide a solid basis for future algorithmic developments.

Although Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have great generalization and prediction capabilities, their functioning does not allow a detailed explanation of their behavior. Opaque deep learning models are increasingly used to make important predictions in critical environments, and the danger is that they make and use predictions that cannot be justified or legitimized. Several eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods that separate explanations from machine learning models have emerged, but have shortcomings in faithfulness to the model actual functioning and robustness. As a result, there is a widespread agreement on the importance of endowing Deep Learning models with explanatory capabilities so that they can themselves provide an answer to why a particular prediction was made. First, we address the problem of the lack of universal criteria for XAI by formalizing what an explanation is. We also introduced a set of axioms and definitions to clarify XAI from a mathematical perspective. Finally, we present the Greybox XAI, a framework that composes a DNN and a transparent model thanks to the use of a symbolic Knowledge Base (KB). We extract a KB from the dataset and use it to train a transparent model (i.e., a logistic regression). An encoder-decoder architecture is trained on RGB images to produce an output similar to the KB used by the transparent model. Once the two models are trained independently, they are used compositionally to form an explainable predictive model. We show how this new architecture is accurate and explainable in several datasets.

Over the last few years, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have dominated the field of computer vision thanks to their ability to extract features and their outstanding performance in classification problems, for example in the automatic analysis of X-rays. Unfortunately, these neural networks are considered black-box algorithms, i.e. it is impossible to understand how the algorithm has achieved the final result. To apply these algorithms in different fields and test how the methodology works, we need to use eXplainable AI techniques. Most of the work in the medical field focuses on binary or multiclass classification problems. However, in many real-life situations, such as chest X-rays, radiological signs of different diseases can appear at the same time. This gives rise to what is known as "multilabel classification problems". A disadvantage of these tasks is class imbalance, i.e. different labels do not have the same number of samples. The main contribution of this paper is a Deep Learning methodology for imbalanced, multilabel chest X-ray datasets. It establishes a baseline for the currently underutilised PadChest dataset and a new eXplainable AI technique based on heatmaps. This technique also includes probabilities and inter-model matching. The results of our system are promising, especially considering the number of labels used. Furthermore, the heatmaps match the expected areas, i.e. they mark the areas that an expert would use to make the decision.

Future advances in AI that automate away human labor may have stark implications for labor markets and inequality. This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of specific types of AI systems on the labor market, based on how much labor demand they will create versus displace, while taking into account that productivity gains also make society wealthier and thereby contribute to additional labor demand. This analysis enables ethically-minded companies creating or deploying AI systems as well as researchers and policymakers to take into account the effects of their actions on labor markets and inequality, and therefore to steer progress in AI in a direction that advances shared prosperity and an inclusive economic future for all of humanity.

The Clever Hans Effect in Anomaly Detection

Jacob Kauffmann, Lukas Ruff, Grégoire Montavon +1

The 'Clever Hans' effect occurs when the learned model produces correct predictions based on the 'wrong' features. This effect which undermines the generalization capability of an ML model and goes undetected by standard validation techniques has been frequently observed for supervised learning where the training algorithm leverages spurious correlations in the data. The question whether Clever Hans also occurs in unsupervised learning, and in which form, has received so far almost no attention. Therefore, this paper will contribute an explainable AI (XAI) procedure that can highlight the relevant features used by popular anomaly detection models of different type. Our analysis reveals that the Clever Hans effect is widespread in anomaly detection and occurs in many (unexpected) forms. Interestingly, the observed Clever Hans effects are in this case not so much due to the data, but due to the anomaly detection models themselves whose structure makes them unable to detect the truly relevant features, even though vast amounts of data points are available. Overall, our work contributes a warning against an unrestrained use of existing anomaly detection models in practical applications, but it also points at a possible way out of the Clever Hans dilemma, specifically, by allowing multiple anomaly models to mutually cancel their individual structural weaknesses to jointly produce a better and more trustworthy anomaly detector.

This text discusses several popular explanatory methods that go beyond the error measurements and plots traditionally used to assess machine learning models. Some of the explanatory methods are accepted tools of the trade while others are rigorously derived and backed by long-standing theory. The methods, decision tree surrogate models, individual conditional expectation (ICE) plots, local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), partial dependence plots, and Shapley explanations, vary in terms of scope, fidelity, and suitable application domain. Along with descriptions of these methods, this text presents real-world usage recommendations supported by a use case and public, in-depth software examples for reproducibility.