Research Papers

Carbon offset programs are critical in the fight against climate change. One emerging threat to the long-term stability and viability of forest carbon offset projects is wildfires, which can release large amounts of carbon and limit the efficacy of associated offsetting credits. However, analysis of wildfire risk to forest carbon projects is challenging because existing models for forecasting long-term fire risk are limited in predictive accuracy. Therefore, we propose an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model trained on 7 million global satellite wildfire observations. Validation results suggest substantial potential for high resolution, enhanced accuracy projections of global wildfire risk, and the model outperforms the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research's leading fire model. Applied to a collection of 190 global forest carbon projects, we find that fire exposure is projected to increase 55% [37-76%] by 2080 under a mid-range scenario (SSP2-4.5). Our results indicate the large wildfire carbon project damages seen in the past decade are likely to become more frequent as forests become hotter and drier. In response, we hope the model can support wildfire managers, policymakers, and carbon market analysts to preemptively quantify and mitigate long-term permanence risks to forest carbon projects.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has demonstrated the ability to extract insights from data, but the issue of fairness remains a concern in high-stakes fields such as healthcare. Despite extensive discussion and efforts in algorithm development, AI fairness and clinical concerns have not been adequately addressed. In this paper, we discuss the misalignment between technical and clinical perspectives of AI fairness, highlight the barriers to AI fairness' translation to healthcare, advocate multidisciplinary collaboration to bridge the knowledge gap, and provide possible solutions to address the clinical concerns pertaining to AI fairness.

ALUM: Adversarial Data Uncertainty Modeling from Latent Model Uncertainty Compensation

Wei Wei, Jiahuan Zhou, Hongze Li +1

It is critical that the models pay attention not only to accuracy but also to the certainty of prediction. Uncertain predictions of deep models caused by noisy data raise significant concerns in trustworthy AI areas. To explore and handle uncertainty due to intrinsic data noise, we propose a novel method called ALUM to simultaneously handle the model uncertainty and data uncertainty in a unified scheme. Rather than solely modeling data uncertainty in the ultimate layer of a deep model based on randomly selected training data, we propose to explore mined adversarial triplets to facilitate data uncertainty modeling and non-parametric uncertainty estimations to compensate for the insufficiently trained latent model layers. Thus, the critical data uncertainty and model uncertainty caused by noisy data can be readily quantified for improving model robustness. Our proposed ALUM is model-agnostic which can be easily implemented into any existing deep model with little extra computation overhead. Extensive experiments on various noisy learning tasks validate the superior robustness and generalization ability of our method. The code is released at https://github.com/wwzjer/ALUM.

Recommender system is the most successful commercial technology in the past decade. Technical mammoth such as Temu, TikTok and Amazon utilize the technology to generate enormous revenues each year. Although there have been enough research literature on accuracy enhancement of the technology, explainable AI is still a new idea to the field. In 2022, the author of this paper provides a geometric interpretation of the matrix factorization-based methods and uses geometric approximation to solve the recommendation problem. We continue the research in this direction in this paper, and visualize the inner structure of the parameter space of matrix factorization technologies. We show that the parameters of matrix factorization methods are distributed within a hyper-ball. After further analysis, we prove that the distribution of the parameters is not multivariate normal.

Counterfactual fairness is an approach to AI fairness that tries to make decisions based on the outcomes that an individual with some kind of sensitive status would have had without this status. This paper proposes Double Machine Learning (DML) Fairness which analogises this problem of counterfactual fairness in regression problems to that of estimating counterfactual outcomes in causal inference under the Potential Outcomes framework. It uses arbitrary machine learning methods to partial out the effect of sensitive variables on nonsensitive variables and outcomes. Assuming that the effects of the two sets of variables are additively separable, outcomes will be approximately equalised and individual-level outcomes will be counterfactually fair. This paper demonstrates the approach in a simulation study pertaining to discrimination in workplace hiring and an application on real data estimating the GPAs of law school students. It then discusses when it is appropriate to apply such a method to problems of real-world discrimination where constructs are conceptually complex and finally, whether DML Fairness can achieve justice in these settings.

Trust is an important aspect of human life. It provides instrumental value in allowing us to collaborate on and defer actions to others, and intrinsic value in our intimate relationships with romantic partners, family, and friends. In this paper I examine the nature of trust from a philosophical perspective. Specifically I propose to view trust as a context-sensitive state in a manner that will be made precise. The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, I make the simple observation that an individual's trust is typically both action- and context-sensitive. Action-sensitivity means that trust may obtain between a given truster and trustee for only certain actions. Context-sensitivity means that trust may obtain between a given truster and trustee, regarding the same action, in some conditions and not others. I also opine about what kinds of things may play the role of the truster, trustee, and action. Second, I advance a theory for the nature of contextual trust. I propose that the answer to "What does it mean for $A$ to trust $B$ to do $X$ in context $C$?" has two conditions. First, $A$ must take $B$'s doing $X$ as a means towards one of $A$'s ends. Second, $A$ must adopt an unquestioning attitude concerning $B$'s doing $X$ in context $C$. This unquestioning attitude is similar to the attitude introduced in Nguyen 2021. Finally, we explore how contextual trust can help us make sense of trust in general non-interpersonal settings, notably that of artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) assigns paramount importance to the problem of user trust in opaque computational models, yet does little to give trust diagnostic or even conceptual criteria. I propose that contextual trust is a natural fit for the task by illustrating that model transparency and explainability map nicely into our construction of the contexts $C$.

In its pragmatic turn, the new discipline of AI ethics came to be dominated by humanity's collective fear of its creatures, as reflected in an extensive and perennially popular literary tradition. Dr. Frankenstein's monster in the novel by Mary Shelley rising against its creator; the unorthodox golem in H. Leivick's 1920 play going on a rampage; the rebellious robots of Karel Čapek -- these and hundreds of other examples of the genre are the background against which the preoccupation of AI ethics with preventing robots from behaving badly towards people is best understood. In each of these three fictional cases (as well as in many others), the miserable artificial creature -- mercilessly exploited, or cornered by a murderous mob, and driven to violence in self-defense -- has its author's sympathy. In real life, with very few exceptions, things are different: theorists working on the ethics of AI completely ignore the possibility of robots needing protection from their creators. The present book chapter takes up this, less commonly considered, ethical angle of AI.

The prediction of age is a challenging task with various practical applications in high-impact fields like the healthcare domain or criminology. Despite the growing number of models and their increasing performance, we still know little about how these models work. Numerous examples of failures of AI systems show that performance alone is insufficient, thus, new methods are needed to explore and explain the reasons for the model's predictions. In this paper, we investigate the use of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) for age prediction focusing on two specific modalities, EEG signal and lung X-rays. We share predictive models for age to facilitate further research on new techniques to explain models for these modalities.

Recent advancements in AI have coincided with ever-increasing efforts in the research community to investigate, classify and evaluate various methods aimed at making AI models explainable. However, most of existing attempts present a method-centric view of eXplainable AI (XAI) which is typically meaningful only for domain experts. There is an apparent lack of a robust qualitative and quantitative performance framework that evaluates the suitability of explanations for different types of users. We survey relevant efforts, and then, propose a unified, inclusive and user-centred taxonomy for XAI based on the principles of General System's Theory, which serves us as a basis for evaluating the appropriateness of XAI approaches for all user types, including both developers and end users.

Deep learning is becoming increasingly adopted in business and industry due to its ability to transform large quantities of data into high-performing models. These models, however, are generally regarded as black boxes, which, in spite of their performance, could prevent their use. In this context, the field of eXplainable AI attempts to develop techniques that temper the impenetrable nature of the models and promote a level of understanding of their behavior. Here we present our contribution to XAI methods in the form of a framework that we term SpecXAI, which is based on the spectral characterization of the entire network. We show how this framework can be used to not only understand the network but also manipulate it into a linear interpretable symbolic representation.

This paper's main goal is to provide an attacker's point of view on data poisoning assaults that use label-flipping during the training phase of systems that use electroencephalogram (EEG) signals to evaluate human emotion. To attack different machine learning classifiers such as Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and Random Forest dedicated to the classification of 4 different human emotions using EEG signals, this paper proposes two scenarios of label-flipping methods. The results of the studies show that the proposed data poison attacksm based on label-flipping are successful regardless of the model, but different models show different degrees of resistance to the assaults. In addition, numerous Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques are used to explain the data poison attacks on EEG signal-based human emotion evaluation systems.

Training dataset biases are by far the most scrutinized factors when explaining algorithmic biases of neural networks. In contrast, hyperparameters related to the neural network architecture have largely been ignored even though different network parameterizations are known to induce different implicit biases over learned features. For example, convolutional kernel size is known to affect the frequency content of features learned in CNNs. In this work, we present a causal framework for linking an architectural hyperparameter to out-of-distribution algorithmic bias. Our framework is experimental, in that we train several versions of a network with an intervention to a specific hyperparameter, and measure the resulting causal effect of this choice on performance bias when a particular out-of-distribution image perturbation is applied. In our experiments, we focused on measuring the causal relationship between convolutional kernel size and face analysis classification bias across different subpopulations (race/gender), with respect to high-frequency image details. We show that modifying kernel size, even in one layer of a CNN, changes the frequency content of learned features significantly across data subgroups leading to biased generalization performance even in the presence of a balanced dataset.